----- Original Message ----- From: "John Willkie" <johnwillkie@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
If you read the entire report, it mentions that the opportunity is narrow, and details how Qualcomm's MediaFlo isn't entrenched. How about double-digit MONTHLY disconnect rates? The report holds to my position, that MediaFlo is a demonstration project, with $326MM in sunk costs, and virtuall no revenues.
I did read the report. The report didn't give a rationale for why the opportunity window is narrow. Qualcomm and Sirius Backseat are already in the marketplace, and the other contender, Crown Castle, has bowed out. Broadcasters theoretically could take 3 or 4 years before arriving at a consensus ATSC M/H standard with little or no adverse market impact.
When that report was written, Crown Castle had not abandoned their DVB-H plans, and AT&T was undecided how they would provide handheld video to their subscribers. Now we know that DVB-H in the US is dead, AT&T has signed on with Qualcomm, and because of that there is a potential subscriber base of 130 million for Qualcomm's MediaFLO.
And, it only reaches narrow areas, unlike broadcasting reaches hither and yon. It also might be interesting if M/H reaches areas beyond current service areas, by tuning back the "cliff effect" some.
I, too, am under an NDA, but the only limitations to MediaFLO coverage to date has been legacy broadcast operations inband and near band. Once the Analog Cutoff is complete and broadcasters vacate the non-core channels, MediaFLO will be ready to light up in most Verizon markets on 18 Feburary 2008.
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