[opendtv] Re: Frames Per Second of 720P
- From: "John Willkie" <johnwillkie@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 29 Jul 2008 09:07:35 -0700
If you read the entire report, it mentions that the opportunity is narrow,
and details how Qualcomm's MediaFlo isn't entrenched. How about
double-digit MONTHLY disconnect rates? The report holds to my position,
that MediaFlo is a demonstration project, with $326MM in sunk costs, and
virtuall no revenues.
And, it only reaches narrow areas, unlike broadcasting reaches hither and
yon. It also might be interesting if M/H reaches areas beyond current
service areas, by tuning back the "cliff effect" some.
John Willkie
-----Mensaje original-----
De: opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] En
nombre de John Shutt
Enviado el: Tuesday, July 29, 2008 7:33 AM
Para: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Asunto: [opendtv] Re: Frames Per Second of 720P
----- Original Message -----
From: "Mark A. Aitken" <maitken@xxxxxxxxxx>
> So what if there were money to be made EXCLUDING new business? (not my
> words)
>
> http://www.nabfastroad.org/jan14rptfinaldouble.pdf
>
> $2.0B annual total ($1.1 annual local market station take) based just on
> additional ad revenues. (not my numbers)
Not even the Study's numbers. The study says:
"Given these advantages and the present status of the mobile television
marketplace, we conclude this report by estimating the impact of a M/H DTV
standard on the number of devices able to receive M/H DTV services by the
year 2012 and the resulting additional revenues generated by the
availability of those services. In order to estimate the impact of the
standard we assess the likelihood of success under four different scenarios:
"1. A single system is introduced into the marketplace and that system is
the one the ATSC standardized.
"2. Two systems are introduced into the marketplace and only one of those
systems was standardized by ATSC.
"3. Two systems are introduced into the marketplace and the ATSC was not
able to agree upon a standard.
"4. Three systems are introduced into the marketplace and the ATSC did not
agree upon a standard."
Then the study predicts ad revenue based on those four scenarios as follows:
Scenario 1 - $1.1 billion
Scenario 2 - $0.6 billion
Scenario 3 - $0.2 to $0.4 billion
Scenario 4 - $0.1 billion
Are these four Scenarios based on systems just for broadcasters, or do they
include systems that compete against broadcasters? If the latter, then
guess what? It's already too late for Scenario 1. Qualcomm's MediaFLO is
already well entrenched in the marketplace in most major markets, and the
white areas will be filled in after the analog cutoff in Feb of 2009. (We
are on their channel 55 in the Lansing, MI market so we know how anxious
they are for us to clear out!)
So that leaves Scenario 2 as the best case. Two M/H systems, with one
approved by ATSC. Best case revenue? $600 million by 2012. With Crown
Castle throwing in the Modeo towel, that seemingly eliminates Scenarios 3
and 4. However, this study completely ignores Sirius Backseat TV, a
satellite delivered mobile television service that would be a direct
competitor for at least the "M" part of ATSC M/H. However, there was no
scenario for three systems and only one approved by the ATSC, which is what
we will have if Sirius Backseat TV survives the XM merger. It may not only
survive, but the service may get expanded by the merger, yet another factor
ignored by this report.
Where is the money going to come from for stations to build out this ATSC
M/H infrastructure? The report quotes a "mere" $100,000 per station. That
may cover a new ATSC M/H capable exciter for the RF Plant, but does it
include the ability to receive additional programming streams into the
master control plant? Does it include additional server space? Additional
automation? More channels of traffic software? Subscription billing?
Conditional Access infrastructure? With most stations still deeply in debt
with the digital transition and trying to rebuild studios for HD, and many
groups teetering on the brink of bankruptcy, I don't think the money is
there for stations to equip ATSC M/H, especially if the anticipated revenues
are not generated quickly.
Why does this study think that it is imperative for an ATSC M/H standard to
be announced by February 2009, the analog cutoff date? The only major
competition is Qualcomm's MediaFLO, and it is already launched with Verizon
and AT&T, and will simply be expanded to secondary markets in Feb 2009. Is
it not better to get a standard right the first time, down to the last
detail, than to get it fast? As an example I submit E-VSB, which has been
an ATSC approved standard since 2004, and yet apparently is so useless that
a new M/H standard is required. Being fast almost never results in being
the best.
And finally, were was the NAB back in 1999-2000 when we had the chance to
switch to a DTV system capable of mobile performance with little or no
compromise to fixed receivers, and with no need to negotiate additional
M/H-specific program rights? Europe has proven that DVB-T is receivable by
in-car receivers, portable devices, and laptops. Adding DVB-H brings in the
handheld cell phones. This study talks about a unified ATSC M/H standard to
leverage economies of scale, and if we had DVB-T, we would be leveraging
worldwide economies of scale for the production of DVB-T M/H devices. If
this study's predictions of potential market and revenue are correct (which
I seriously doubt,) I see this report as a complete vindication of the
Sinclair DVB-T proposal of 2000.
Unfortunately, I predict that this whole M/H proposal will go the way of
USDTV and MovieBeam. Millions down a rat hole for infrastructure, and never
even coming close to breaking even with ad revenue, subscriptions, or any
combination thereof.
John
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