At 6:43 PM -0500 1/22/06, Manfredi, Albert E wrote: >First of all, the market for OTA boxes is roughly as big >as the market for DBS. About 20 percent of households. >And secondly, I am baffled by the traction negativism >seems to get. You weren't sounding quite so negative when >you first tried this little guy. Why the change of heart? Some bad assumptions here Bert. First, the number of DBS subscribers in the U.S. is now in excess of 27 million, or nearly 25% of all U.S. homes. Second, it is simply illogical and wrong to assume that every U.S. home that now receives NTSC broadcasts is a potential customer for an ATSC receiver. Why? 1. The number of U.S. homes that still rely exclusively on the NTSC service is unknown, or at least the numbers that are quoted from different studies are conflicting. Your assumption is based on 20% of U.S. homes using the service. This MAY be true, however, the number is influenced by home that still have one or more TVs that can receive NTSC broadcasts in addition to any multi-channel service to which the home subscribes. Based on all of the available reports, one would have to conclude that at least 5% of the 20% subscribe to a multi-channel service today. 2. People may still use an ATSC receiver on occasion, but it is unlikely that they will invest in an ATSC receiver to keep an old set working after the cut-off. I can't quantify this exactly, but it is probably in the range of 15-30% of U.S. homes that now still use the NTSC service on occasion. 3. When (if?) a family actually faces the reality that they will no longer be able to receive Free NTSC broadcasts, they will have options, one of which is to buy an ATSC receiver. If and when this day comes, you can bet your last dollar that the DBS and cable companies will be putting together low cost packages to attract the holdouts. Again, it is not possible to predict the exact percentages, but it would be fair to say that a significant number of homes will elect to switch to a multi-channel service, not ATSC. 4. A sizable percent of the homes included in the NTSC only category do not watch TV at all, or only on rare occasions - these homes will not buy an ATSC STB. 5. By the time the NTSC service is turned off, there will be other competitive options, centered around new IPTV services and TV programming delivered via the Internet. It is quite feasible that an Intel powered media center will cost no more than an ATSC receiver by the time this happens. More important, many of the homes that do not subscribe to a multi-channel service are young, lower income demographics who are growing up with the Internet, and will be more likely to choose a solution that does not involve either OTA broadcasts or subscription to a multi-channel service. Bottom line, I do not see the market for ATSC STBs ever reaching 10% of U.S. homes, and more likely it will be below 5%. Note that this assumes no change in the U.S. broadcast business model. Regards Craig ---------------------------------------------------------------------- You can UNSUBSCRIBE from the OpenDTV list in two ways: - Using the UNSUBSCRIBE command in your user configuration settings at FreeLists.org - By sending a message to: opendtv-request@xxxxxxxxxxxxx with the word unsubscribe in the subject line.