[opendtv] Re: Bob likes COFDM

  • From: Tom Barry <trbarry@xxxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2005 08:25:34 -0500

Craig Birkmaier wrote:
 > What you need is real competition.
 >
 > This means MORE than just offering the same stuff as cable. It ALSO
 > means that it should be relatively easy for any independent producer
 > to get their stuff broadcast, even it the only slot they can afford
 > is at 3am Thursday morning; At leas then they can promote the show
 > and get people to cache it in their PVRs for viewing during prime
 > time.

It occurs to me that if there is a market for advertiser supported shows 
airing at 3am on Tivos then there is probably also a market for legal 
advertiser supported Internet downloads at 3am.  It is no easier to skip 
commercials on one than the other and at bittorrent speeds it would be 
doable for broadband users.

There would be very little barrier to entry except initial startup 
advertising and you would not have to charge for the service, meaning no 
complicated encryption, security, or billing issues.

The only problem would be potentially diluting the market for future 
syndication of popular shows.  Efforts to avoid that would probably 
stall success of something like this for awhile.

But, to the extent that advertising supported TV remains viable I'd 
expect all this to happen.  And it should follow the gradual shift to 
product placement and other tricky ideas instead of just 30 seconds spots.

It might eventually be "real competition".

- Tom





> At 6:11 PM -0500 3/27/05, Manfredi, Albert E wrote:
> 
>>Then I don't understand why the conglomerates
>>continue to create highly desirable prime time
>>content that they air FTA. If it's true that the
>>cable-only shows generate more revenue for the
>>conglomerates than these FTA shows, one would
>>expect the conglomerates to create their best
>>content to be cable-only or DBS-only. But they
>>obviously don't. Some very good new shows have
>>been introduced this year, FTA.
> 
> 
> There are many examples of the congloms creating high quality content 
> exclusively for cable (and later DVD release). Just look at the 
> winners of the Emmy awards for the past few years. Most of the top 
> shows have been exclusive to cable - The Sapranos, Sex in The City, 
> and many more.
> 
> Here is the breakdown for the 2004 Emmy awards by Network 
> (nominations in parenthesis);
> 
>               Programs                Individuals     Total
> HBO           3       (5)     13      (27)    16      (32)
> FOX           1       (1)     2       (9)     3       (10)
> NBC           0       (0)     3       (8)     3       (8)
> ABC           0       (0)     2       (7)     2       (7)
> PBS           0       (3)     0       (4)     0       (7)
> A&E           0       (0)     0       (4)     0       (4)
> Cartoon Network       0       (2)     0       (0)     0       (2)
> CBS           1       (1)     0       (1)     1       (2)
> Comedy Central        1       (1)     1       (1)     2       (2)
> Discovery Channel     0       (0)     0       (2)     0       (2)
> Showtime      0       (0)     0       (2)     0       (2)
> UPN           0       (0)     0       (2)     0       (2)
> USA           0       (0)     0       (2)     0       (2)
> BRAVO         0       (1)     0       (0)     0       (1)
> FX            0       (0)     0       (1)     0       (1)
> LIFETIME              0       (0)     0       (1)     0       (1)
> NICKELODEON   0       (0)     0       (1)     0       (1)
> WB            0       (0)     0       (1)     0       (1)
> 
> As you can see, HBO had a huge lead over the broadcast networks. In 
> fact, the cable nets outperformed the broadcast nets in total for the 
> first time in 2004:
> 
>  From the NCTA:
> 
>>CABLE NETWORKS LEAD 56 TH ANNUAL PRIMETIME EMMYS
>>
>>Cable Surpasses Broadcast With Record 50 Primetime Emmy Awards
>>
>> Washington , DC  - In an affirmation of cable's increasing creative 
>>clout in the television environment, 11 cable networks collectively 
>>garnered a record 50 Primetime Emmy awards yesterday from the 
>>Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS), surpassing for the 
>>first time broadcast networks, which earned 37 awards.
> 
> 
> So much for the best stuff going to the broadcast networks... The 
> situation has become so embarrassing to the broadcast networks that 
> the Television Academy had a hard time convincing a broadcast network 
> to carry the awards ceremony next year. CBS eventually agreed to 
> carry the broadcast to keep it from moving to a cable network.
> 
> As we have covered before, the broadcast networks do not make much 
> money from the first runs of the prime time shows produced in 
> Hollywood (they make more money on the throw away news shows like 
> 20/20 and 60 Minutes). The rights fees are getting very large for 
> good first run Hollywood product; in some cases the Networks lose 
> money on the first run, anticipating the bounce it gives shows that 
> are adjacent.
> 
> So now the networks require participation in the back end revenues, 
> if they are not producing these shows in their own studios. 
> International first run release, DVD release, then cable syndication, 
> and eventually broadcast syndication are where the profits are made. 
> But a successful Network run is very important in driving up the 
> price for syndication.
> 
> 
>>The cable and DBS companies won't dump the content
>>that their subscribers want to see, obviously, but
>>certainly their deals would have to be renegotiated.
>>My hypothesis here is that with DTT multiplexes, the
>>conglomerates are able to make more of their content
>>fit the model of the current FTA prime time lineup.
>>And that this is a good deal for the conglomerates.
> 
> 
> TIme will tell. The congloms would like to be rid of the affiliates. 
> IF they could own stations everywhere the situation would be VERY 
> different.
> 
> 
> 
>>All I'm saying is that you can have a Burger King
>>franchise and a Wendy's franchise chain, each one
>>exclusive to its own brand, and yet they can and do
>>compete very effectively. The reason being, nothing
>>prevents two such franchise stores from operating
>>over the same medium (e.g. strip mall). And at the
>>same time, you can also have a mom and pop operation
>>open up a local-only store and compete with these
>>two giants, in that same strip mall.
> 
> 
> An interesting analogy. But what happens if the company that owns the 
> strip mall will only let certain food chains compete?
> 
> This is the situation today; there is very limited real estate (even 
> in cable and DBS). It is virtually impossible for an independent 
> producer to get their content onto a broadcast network, and still 
> very difficult to get it onto a cable network.
> 
> 
>>With OTA TV and the FCC local ownership cap rules,
>>this same model works for OTA TV.
> 
> 
> Sorry Bert, but it does not. Even at the local level it is VERY hard 
> to get a show on the air, unless you want to PAY the station for 
> carriage. This is the main reason that there are so many infomercials 
> on broadcast stations - why pay for a program that will not produce 
> an audience that will attract local advertisers, when someone is 
> willing to pay you to run their program?
> 
> The world of television is controlled by gatekeepers, not the free market.
> 
> If you have enough money, you can buy a TV station and program it 
> yourself. But if you want to make a profit, you will quickly learn to 
> play by THEIR rules.
> 
> 
>>The reason the conglomerates won't easily lose any
>>leverage they have is very simple: they create the
>>best hamburgers. And that's what people want. As
>>long as they continue to create the best hamburgers,
>>they don't have a lot to worry about.
> 
> 
> I like steak.
> 
> Obviously I am not alone. The best content is no longer the exclusive 
> domain of the broadcast networks, or their cable nets for that 
> matter. It is a matter of personal taste. Unfortunately, the best 
> content rarely every gets to TV these days because the networks 
> pander to what they think the masses want. Good shows with good 
> values and good scripts rarely succeed today because the masses have 
> an 8th grade education and expect at least 6 acts of sex or violence 
> every 10 minutes.
> 
> Sad but true...
> 
> 
>>To compete against cable and DBS, all you need to do
>>is provide those same prime time quality TV shows,
>>but more of them OTA. Cable and DBS will still win
>>more viewership, because most people can't say no to
>>"more," but the percentages will probably shift
>>somewhat.
> 
> 
> What you need is real competition.
> 
> This means MORE than just offering the same stuff as cable. It ALSO 
> means that it should be relatively easy for any independent producer 
> to get their stuff broadcast, even it the only slot they can afford 
> is at 3am Thursday morning; At leas then they can promote the show 
> and get people to cache it in their PVRs for viewing during prime 
> time.
> 
> Regards
> Craig
>  
>  
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