Craig Birkmaier wrote: > Not exactly. Most of the ad revenues go to the > conglomerates now. There are slots for local ad > insertion into these cable channels, but that > revenue goes to the cable or DBS system, or in > your scenario, to the local affiliate. No net > gain for the congloms there. Then I don't understand why the conglomerates continue to create highly desirable prime time content that they air FTA. If it's true that the cable-only shows generate more revenue for the conglomerates than these FTA shows, one would expect the conglomerates to create their best content to be cable-only or DBS-only. But they obviously don't. Some very good new shows have been introduced this year, FTA. > But a potentially huge net loss. The cable > companies will liekely either dupm these channels > if broadcasters start to carry them, or at the > very least, refuse to pay subscriber fees. This > represents a potentially large loss of revenue > for the conglomerates. The cable and DBS companies won't dump the content that their subscribers want to see, obviously, but certainly their deals would have to be renegotiated. My hypothesis here is that with DTT multiplexes, the conglomerates are able to make more of their content fit the model of the current FTA prime time lineup. And that this is a good deal for the conglomerates. > > Seems to me that the rest of the business world > > is full of different sorts of redistribution > > arrangements. > Do you mean the world of free markets? > > The conglomerates do not operate in free markets. > They have tremendous leverage because of > techno-political gerrymandering. If local > broadcastters decide to use the spectrum to compete > with cable and DBS, the conglomerateas will lose > this leverage and likely be forced to start paying > for distribution, rather than greenmailing their > distributors to raise profits. All I'm saying is that you can have a Burger King franchise and a Wendy's franchise chain, each one exclusive to its own brand, and yet they can and do compete very effectively. The reason being, nothing prevents two such franchise stores from operating over the same medium (e.g. strip mall). And at the same time, you can also have a mom and pop operation open up a local-only store and compete with these two giants, in that same strip mall. With OTA TV and the FCC local ownership cap rules, this same model works for OTA TV. The reason the conglomerates won't easily lose any leverage they have is very simple: they create the best hamburgers. And that's what people want. As long as they continue to create the best hamburgers, they don't have a lot to worry about. To compete against cable and DBS, all you need to do is provide those same prime time quality TV shows, but more of them OTA. Cable and DBS will still win more viewership, because most people can't say no to "more," but the percentages will probably shift somewhat. Bert ---------------------------------------------------------------------- You can UNSUBSCRIBE from the OpenDTV list in two ways: - Using the UNSUBSCRIBE command in your user configuration settings at FreeLists.org - By sending a message to: opendtv-request@xxxxxxxxxxxxx with the word unsubscribe in the subject line.