I suppose we could use the word "war," in several different ways, but in this case the matter was hinging off a statement I had made, namely that our War in Iraq was extremely successful when compared to other major wars and that we suffered the fewest number of casualties of any major war. In regard to the insurgency, I'm sure the insurgents would claim they were in a war, but I doubt they'd claim it was a war of attrition because they do not have big numbers on their side. Rather they would hope to stir up enough trouble to cause the U.S. to cut and run -- something the Middle East had grown used to during the Bush Sr and Clinton administrations. Osama bin Laden hoped to involve the US in a long drawn-out war in Afghanistan. George Friedman (founder of Stratfor) in America?s Secret War argues to that effect. OBL and Al Quaeda probably ?war game? as much as any military force, and they considered all the possibilities they could imagine and didn?t think they could lose in Afghanistan. What the US actually did there caught them and the Taliban by surprise. We can see by OBLs recent messages that he would be satisfied if we would get bogged down in Iraq (he previously hoped to bog us down in Afghanistan). He urges the insurgents to keep on fighting. However, I?m convinced that OBL will be disappointed once again. Our fall-back position isn?t to hunker down and battle insurgents for years. Our fall-back position is to declare victory and leave. But this would result in a civil war, Shiite against Sunni that would probably keep Middle Eastern nations and Islamists preoccupied for a good long while. By that I mean getting the Shiites up to speed militarily and then saying ?good luck,? and leaving. Many of the Shiites are holding grudges against the Sunnis and if we left prematurely, they might well engage in a little ethnic cleansing. That would take care of the insurgents rather quickly and neatly if it weren?t that the Syrians and other Sunnis would probably come to their aid. Iran would be supportive of the Iraqi Shiites. Saudi Arabia hates the Shiites and would panic. They would open their coffers to pay for as much support of the Iraqi Sunnis as they could buy. Knowing that events could play out that way, we are trying to make sure that there is a Democratic government in Iraq that guarantees rights for Sunnis, Kurds and Shiites before we leave. Lawrence Helm San Jacinto -----Original Message----- From: Steven G. Cameron **Might this then (currently) qualify as a war of "attrition"?? TC, /Steve Cameron, NJ -- No virus found in this outgoing message. Checked by AVG Anti-Virus. Version: 7.0.296 / Virus Database: 265.6.7 - Release Date: 12/30/2004 ------------------------------------------------------------------ To change your Lit-Ideas settings (subscribe/unsub, vacation on/off, digest on/off), visit www.andreas.com/faq-lit-ideas.html