[lit-ideas] Re: Priorities

  • From: Andy Amago <aamago@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx, lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Sun, 2 Jan 2005 15:30:45 -0800 (PST)

-----Original Message-----
From: Lawrence Helm <lawrencehelm@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Jan 2, 2005 12:37 PM
To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [lit-ideas] Re: Priorities

I suppose we could use the word "war," in several different ways, but in
this case the matter was hinging off a statement I had made, namely that ou=
r
War in Iraq was extremely successful when compared to other major wars and
that we suffered the fewest number of casualties of any major war. =20
=20

A.A.  Addressed in other post. =20



L.H. In regard to the insurgency, I'm sure the insurgents would claim they =
were
in a war, but I doubt they'd claim it was a war of attrition because they d=
o
not have big numbers on their side.  Rather they would hope to stir up
enough trouble to cause the U.S. to cut and run -- something the Middle Eas=
t
had grown used to during the Bush Sr and Clinton administrations.=20



A.A. There is a never ending supply of angry young men who hate Americans. =
 What else are the insurgents doing but fighting a war?  Regarding numbers,=
 there is a never ending supply of angry young men.  Regarding stirring up =
trouble, that's what angry young men do.  We're just now realizing it.


=20

L.H. Osama bin Laden hoped to involve the US in a long drawn-out war in
Afghanistan.  George Friedman (founder of Stratfor) in America=92s Secret W=
ar
argues to that effect.   OBL and Al Quaeda probably =93war game=94 as much =
as
any military force, and they considered all the possibilities they could
imagine and didn=92t think they could lose in Afghanistan.  What the US
actually did there caught them and the Taliban by surprise. =20



A.A. The cities might be a better off.  The countryside which is most of Af=
ghanistan is as untouched as before our invasion.  It's not for no reason t=
hat we couldn't find bin Laden in those mountains.  Afghanistan is now lite=
rally an organized crime state run by warring gangs, untouched by anything =
that is in the same universe with democracy.  Sheer lawlessness does not br=
eed stability.  It is the example of what Iraq is turning into, if it's not=
 already there.



L.H.  We can see by
OBLs recent messages that he would be satisfied if we would get bogged down
in Iraq (he previously hoped to bog us down in Afghanistan).  He urges the
insurgents to keep on fighting. =20

=20

A.A.  Correct.  Allah be praised.




L.H.  However, I=92m convinced that OBL will be disappointed once again. =
=20



A.A.  It's good that you're so hopeful. =20




L.H.  Our
fall-back position isn=92t to hunker down and battle insurgents for years.
Our fall-back position is to declare victory and leave. =20



A.A. Otherwise known as cut losses and run.  It's interesting that that's n=
ow our fall back position when one would think that it would have been our =
main goal from the first day of the war.  Topple Saddam, get the country on=
 its feet (i.e.,  have a plan), then leave.  Now it's a fall back position.



L.H.  But this would
result in a civil war,=20



A.A.  Had we just put our finger in that dike, imagine the possibilities ..=
.



L.H.  Shiite against Sunni that would probably keep Middle
Eastern nations and Islamists preoccupied for a good long while.  By that I
mean getting the Shiites up to speed militarily and then saying =93good luc=
k,=94
and leaving.  Many of the Shiites are holding grudges against the Sunnis an=
d
if we left prematurely, they might well engage in a little ethnic cleansing=
.
That would take care of the insurgents rather quickly and neatly if it
weren=92t that the Syrians and other Sunnis would probably come to their ai=
d.
Iran would be supportive of the Iraqi Shiites.  Saudi Arabia hates the
Shiites and would panic.  They would open their coffers to pay for as much
support of the Iraqi Sunnis as they could buy.




A.A.  That hornets nest is a nasty thing.

=20

L.H. Knowing that events could play out that way, we are trying to make sur=
e that
there is a Democratic government in Iraq that guarantees rights for Sunnis,
Kurds and Shiites before we leave.

=20
A.A.  Otherwise known as Hercules cleaning out the stables.  =20



Andy Amago



Lawrence Helm

San Jacinto

=20

-----Original Message-----
From: Steven G. Cameron



=20

**Might this then (currently) qualify as a war of "attrition"??

=20

TC,

=20

/Steve Cameron, NJ

=20

=20

=20


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