[opendtv] Re: Ericsson: TV and Media 2015
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Mon, 7 Sep 2015 07:32:46 -0400
On Sep 6, 2015, at 5:26 PM, Albert Manfredi <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
I already addressed the campfire issue: it's bogus.
In your opinion. I might agree that there is a better term than "family
campfire." The days when an entire family sat together to watch TV seem like
ancient history, although it brings back many fond childhood memories.
Bert is enamored with the behavior of the Millennials, and the supposed fact
that they are not watching linear TV, and are cord nevers. But the reality is
that they make up a large portion of the live TV audience WHEN there is a
program that appeals to them, like the Walking Dead. And they interact socially
in real time when they watch these shows.
Btw, the Ericsson report said as much too. On demand can equally be used for
any "campfire" cluster. And the sports aspect has been repeated enough times
to be considered banality. So, nothing is missing for more and more adoption
of on demand, except those aspects I already explained. You can scroll back
and re-read.
I would agree that social interactions during a live broadcast may help drive
friends to view that program later via a VOD source. But I see little evidence
that any people interact socially by simultaneously watching the same program,
at the same time from a VOD source. This may happen with Netflix originals, as
there is no live broadcast.
The big difference today is that there is less pressure (need) to view the live
appointment broadcast, as it is now easy to catch-up. When I was the age of
current Millennials, if you missed the broadcast you had to wait as much as six
months to see the rerun. So in this respect, if a show causes a social buzz, it
may help build the total audience. But nothing here suggests that the original
live broadcast is not important. It is still a huge portion of all TV viewing -
about 47% according to multiple sources.
And sports IS both. It drives appointment TV viewing and is the most social of
all TV media. There's a reason millions of people tailgate before games - here
in Gainesville a significant portion of the tailgaters don't actually go to the
game. But there is one thing that you see a lot at the tailgates - mobile TV.
It is quite common for people to mount a large (30"-50") flat panel in the back
of a SUV or Van and watch games from FOTA stations while they tailgate. And I
have seen people use their cellphone data to watch games on these big displays
from TVE sites like Watch ESPN.
I am now seeing a new phenomenon that I have discounted up until now. Sports
VOD.
To an extent this has always existed, as ESPN and the other sports networks use
replays of major sporting events to fill out their schedules, which in turn
fill the screens in the sports bars and the sports books in Vegas and Atlantic
City. But I never have watched this stuff.
Most colleges had deals to replay their football games on the Sunday following
a game, typically on a cable sports channel. As an avid fan of FSU, I did watch
many of these replays, until they disappeared.
This Saturday the FSU game was on ESPNews, a channel I do not pay Cox for. I
tried to access it via Watch ESPN and it was blocked, so I listened to the
audio broadcast on my iPad. Sunday morning we watched the game via the replay
feature of Watch ESPN. I now understand why the "scheduled" replay of the game
went away - I can access it on demand.
So bottom line Bert, you can keep trying to convince Moonves, Skipper, et so
that live TV is dead...
But they are not listening.
And please stop with the bull about half of all TV viewing being streamed. I
have disproven this from multiple sources. ENOUGH!
Craig, you have zero credibility with me,
OMG, I'm so depressed...
when it comes to anything quantitative. (And anything qualitative you might
derive from it.) As I showed you in my previous post, and multiple times over
the years, you constantly misinterpret, I have to push you back to the truth,
and before you know it, you're back to your vague misinterpretations (aka
back to square 1). You should have been able to do these numbers on your own.
I have multiple times. You have no credibility...period.
On demand TV program viewing is about 50% of all TV viewing (actual number,
53%). (That right there took an eternity to get across to you.)
Yup, and more than half of this is via DVR or a MVPD VOD service.
Of that 50% of time-shifted TV program viewing, about half is consumed from
online sources (actual number, 47%).
Not correct. 47% is consumed live from a linear TV service.
With me so far, Craig? So roughly, what percentage of daily TV programs are
consumed *time-shifted* from online sources? Roughly 25%.
Correct. But this is not just time shifting, unless you consider watching a
three or four year old TV series on Netflix time shifting. Time shifting is
choosing to watch a current live linear TV series on your own schedule rather
than by appointment.
Some of the daily *linear* TV program consumption is also done from online
sources. For instance, if nothing else, TVE. Let us try to make Craig happy,
and assign a tiny number to that: 5%.
This might be an accurate number - I have not seen any real stats that breakout
live versus VOD from the TVE sites. Obviously I use both.
Hey Craig, where are we so far? If TVE is as pathetic as this, then use of
the Internet for daily TV program consumption is about 30%.
I have seen nothing that corroborates this. The published stats from multiple
sources say 20% - 25%.
Did you notice I always specified "TV program consumption"? This is because
the numbers apply to TV channel content. Not to OTT content such as Netflix
movies or YouTube or other such. Yes, *some* of daily Netflix streaming is TV
shows on demand, but the vast majority is not. The amount that was actual TV
shows was included previously.
This is pure bull. That are all part of TV land when viewed at home, and this
includes The Netflix DVD service and Redbox.
Next step. Craig has been religiously repeating a statistic he doesn't seem
to understand. Craig keeps telling us that 23% of videos consumed from the
Internet are from OTT sites such as Netflix movies or YouTube videos. These
are called "digital video streaming," or similar, and are differentiated from
"TV shows." Can you add those daily totals up, Craig? What is the sum? What
is 30% plus 23%?
And absurd number you invented.
Regards
Craig
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