[opendtv] Re: Ericsson: TV and Media 2015
- From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sat, 5 Sep 2015 00:31:18 +0000
Craig Birkmaier wrote:
Bert actually highlighted a few that conflict with his world
view, especially the importance of watching linear TV.
Actually, no. I highlighted those aspects that Craig would approve of, and then
explained why they are bogus, to be blunt about it. Hardly conflicts with my
view, quite the contrary!
As far as the US market goes, anyway, there is one single "most important"
finding of this Ericsson survey. This trumps *all the rest*. Figure 14 tells
the TV industry what people like and don't like, linear vs. on demand, and it's
quite telling. Applicable to the US, the results were:
Only one aspect of linear was good: "video quality." This was also perceived as
being fairly important. Every other aspect of linear TV was considered bad, and
mostly very bad. Take that in, Craig.
"Relevant content" was poor, for linear, and is considered an important aspect.
Not good, Craig. Echoes other parts of the survey, which say that people can't
find what they really want, with linear.
Interestingly, "mobility" for linear was very poor, but also considered very
unimportant. And "price" and "recommended function" were also considered very
poor for linear, and both are more important than mobility. Again, not good,
Craig. In the US, people don't have much to say good about linear TV, is the
bottom line.
On the other hand, there was only one barely negative aspect of on demand, and
that was "video quality." That's it! And for some reason, video quality was
deemed less important for on demand than it was for linear. This figure 14 says
a lot. Any mention of "campfire effect," or other such debatable advantages of
linear, are trumped by this figure, at least as far as **US TV viewers**.
With the unwalled Internet competition, on the neutral Internet pipe, this is
what the content company CEOs are paying attention to.
He did not highlight a major finding of the study.
In 2011, people estimated that they spent 2.9 hours per week watching
streamed TV series, programs and movies. Now it is 6 hours per week
- the viewing has more than doubled (Figure 1).
Clearly, this is evidence that consumers are moving to VOD for
pre-produced programming - the reasons can be found throughout
the report.
I will typically not waste time rehashing the obvious, Craig. We have mentioned
this too many times to have to repeat.
But Figure 2: Average number of self-reported weekly hours of
active TV/video viewing by gender, puts the 6 hour figure into
context.
Add up all the numbers, and they are nowhere near the five
hours a day that the ratings services say we watch TV.
Simple explanation, Craig: those stats are not for the US exclusively! Figures
14 and 15 are. It's not surprising that other parts of the world watch less TV.
For one thing, their TV programs are very often not that great.
In the US, non-linear TV programs account for 53% of all TV program watching.
Some of that on demand viewing uses MVPD proprietary techniques, almost half
uses the Internet. And in addition to that, in the US, and growing all over,
there are other program sources, unrelated to typical TV network or cable
network channels.
In spite of Craig's inexplicable attempts to deny the facts, in the US, people
use the Internet to watch, mostly on demand, a whole lot of video material. Way
more than they spend watching linear TV. We already know that linear vs on
demand **TV programs** are watched 47% vs 53% respectively. But in addition to
watching these TV programs, US viewers are also consuming other digital video,
such as Netflix movies and so on. That 23% figure Craig likes to bandy about.
Which means, overall, the Internet is used for well over 50% of what people
consume in video programming on a daily basis.
You just posted a study from Ericsson that seems to confirm the
Deloitt study and others, which place the actual use of OTT
streaming in the range of 20 - 25%.
In addition to that, TV on demand programs. You are getting confused by the
stats, Craig. You have to read what they mean by "digital video streaming."
Netflix does not offer time shifted TV network content, unless
you are talking about years, not days or weeks.
Exactly. Netflix accounts for 16% of time shifted TV program viewing. Hulu 6%.
Amazon 3%. These figures apply to TV shows streamed from these services, which
is added on top of in-system VOD and DVR time shifting. Doesn't matter how long
the delay. Hulu delays very little. See this link, toward the bottom.
http://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/247581/time-shifted-tv-is-the-default.html
All that being said, none of this is additive. The Ericsson
study pins it at 6 hours a week, hardly 50% of all TV viewing.
I very explicitly mentioned that the Ericsson study was global, and I very
deliberately copied the list of countries to which it applies.
But the most successful OTT services like Netflix and Hulu
are complementary, not competitive
That's yesterday's mantra, Craig. I posted an article that said this ain't true
anymore. Because when people shave and cut the cord, they only do so because
these other OTT services exist. So, that mantra is losing credibility.
They were given the option to binge watch the entire series
- only 6% did.
So what? Binge watching is a gymongous waste of time that very few people would
put up with. It's not binge watching vs linear, Craig. It's vewing when you
want to, vs on a precise appointment schedule.
You are trying to conflate multiple studies and statistics.
The Deloitte question does not reflect actual usage or
subscriber rates - it reflects preferences.
Stop it, Craig. Before you repeat this nonsense, go back and check. We've been
down this same exact road already more than once. You are flat wrong.
http://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/technology-media-telecommunications/us-tmt-DDS_Executive_Summary_Report_Final_2015-04-20.pdf
Bert
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