[lit-ideas] Re: Seeking the Prime source
- From: "Simon Ward" <sedward@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: <lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 13 Mar 2007 18:13:25 -0000
I haven't yet replied to Robert's post, in part because it doesn't answer the
issue. Namely whether a relatively small population of extremist muslims with a
high fertility rate would be sufficient to outstrip the much larger indigenous
population with lower fertility rates. Robert provides figures for the larger
aspect in both eastern and western Europe, but the information he provides
doesn't include muslim extremists so there is little to work on.
All that Steyn does, judging from your inclusion, is give the outline of his
theory, namely that, in a couple of generations, muslims will have taken over
Europe, turning it into Eurabia, based upon the discrepencies in the fertility
rates. Merely expousing a theory does not, in itself, provide proof that it is
sound. Steyn, if he's as bright as you suggest, must have refenced demoagraphic
models or at least the work of renowned demographic scientists. Surely it can't
be too difficult to access his notes and pass on those references.
Is that too much to ask?
Simon
----- Original Message -----
From: Lawrence Helm
To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Tuesday, March 13, 2007 5:57 PM
Subject: [lit-ideas] Re: Seeking the Prime source
You have some gall, Simon. You invited me to go off and check some things
out for you and then Robert Paul out of the kindness of his heart, did that for
you. I didn't respond to his note to gloat even though his information was
consistent with Steyn's. But I was awaiting your mea culpa with interest.
What a surprise that you didn't produce one. Except how could you not?
I just checked Robert's message again to see if perchance he had sent it to
me privately, but no. He sent it to the list. My opinion of your intelligence
continues to plummet. It is a toss up which is lower, your intelligence or the
European birth rate. Well, perhaps I am being unfair. Perhaps Robert's email
reached my inbox but through some quirk in the ether missed yours; so here it
is again. He begins with a quote from you, Simon:
Lawrence
Simon says: > The trouble is Lawrence, as I keep saying, commentators like
Steyn
> are preaching to the converted, espousing vacuous theories that are
> at the same time wrong and yet exactly what their audience wants to
> hear. All of the Steyn quotes you've transcribed relate to third
> party anecdotals that appear to vindicate he's central thesis that
> Islam is taking over Europe. This isn't sound academic practice as
> you well know.
Robert Paul responds:
You might be interested in these articles. I don’t know if you can get
to the ones from the Times directly from these addresses unless you
have a Times account--I rather doubt it--so I’ve pasted part of the
second one below.
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?sec=health&res=9D0CE2DE1F39F932A05751C1A967958260
In major areas of Eastern Europe -- Hungary, eastern Germany, Romania
and Ukraine -- experts expect more deaths than births in 1991. That
would be a startling development, bringing Eastern Europe's population
trends in line with the West's.
This is more recent: 6 September 2006.
http://select.nytimes.com/search/restricted/article?res=F50616F6345A0C778CDDA00894DE404482
In 1990, no European country had a fertility rate of less than 1.3
children per woman; by 2002, there were 15, with 6 more below 1.4. No
European country is maintaining its population through births, and
only France -- with a rate of 1.8 --has even the potential to do so,
according to a recent report by the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development.
Throughout Europe, women have delayed having children, or opted out
entirely. But the free fall in births is most recent and precipitous
here in Eastern Europe, where Communist-era state incentives that made
it economical to have children--from free apartments to subsidized
child care -- have been phased out while costs have skyrocketed.
New, vibrant market economies provide young people with tantalizing
alternatives. Lukas and Lenka Dolansky, both journalists, would like a
sibling for their 3-month-old son, Krystof, but they are not sure that
would be practical. ''We want to go abroad, study, have a career,''
Mr. Dolansky said. ''Our parents didn't have those opportunities.''
The result is birthrates that are the lowest in the world -- and the
lowest sustained rates in history. European Union statistics put the
rate at 1.2 children per woman in the Czech Republic, Slovenia, Latvia
and Poland, far below the rate of 2.1 needed to maintain population.
Western European countries are also suffering: Greece, Italy and Spain
have had rates of 1.3 and under for a decade.
But Eastern Europe is faced with a double whammy: plummeting
birthrates combined with emigration to Western Europe for work, made
easier by membership in the European Union.
This relies largely on the Times’ article.
http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/medicalnews.php?newsid=51329
Medical News Today
European Birth Rates Reach Historic Low In Part Because Of Recent Fall
In Eastern Europe
08 Sep 2006
Birth rates in European countries recently have reached a "historic
low," with the most "precipitous" and recent fall occurring in Eastern
Europe, the New York Times reports. All European countries recorded
birth rates of more than 1.3 children per woman in 1990, but in 2002,
15 counties had rates below 1.3 children per woman, and six countries
had rates between 1.3 and 1.4 children per woman. According to a
report released recently by the Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development, France's birth rate of 1.8 makes it the only European
country with the possibility of maintaining its current population
through births. In addition, the average age at which women have their
first child in many countries has increased from the early 20s to
around 30 in the last 20 years. European Union officials have
estimated that there will be a shortage of 20 million workers in E.U.
countries by 2030 if current birth rates are sustained. According to
the Times, access to contraception and abortion "has turned
childbearing into a choice rather than an act of nature" on the
continent. In Eastern Europe, the dissolving of policies in many
former Communist countries that provided child care, education and
housing for couples with children has "dramatically changed the
equation," the Times reports. Emerging private markets in Eastern
Europe have not adequately replaced annulled government programs, and
women have increased opportunities for education and careers, Jitka
Rychtarikova -- a professor of demographics at Charles University in
Prague, Czech Republic -- said. Almost all governments on the
continent are increasing incentives to have children, and Vladimir
Spidla, E.U. commissioner for employment and social affairs, has asked
that every new E.U. policy be evaluated for its potential effect on
demographics. Many countries in Europe offer maternity leave, but the
long length and small payments during the leaves often make it
difficult for women to re-enter the workforce, according to the Times
(Rosenthal, New York Times, 9/4).
Reprinted with permission from http://www.kaisernetwork.org. You can
view the entire Kaiser Daily Health Policy Report, search the
archives, or sign up for email delivery at
http://www.kaisernetwork.org/dailyreports/healthpolicy.
Robert Paul
Reed College
------------Original Message------------
From: "Simon Ward" <sedward@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Date: Tue, Mar-13-2007 10:24 AM
Subject: [lit-ideas] Re: Seeking the Prime source
Lawrence, there's no need to have a hissy fit just because you've been caught
out. (Teenagers eh!) And it seems we're getting back to your standard problem:
that whereas you can quote a book you're reading, nobody can comment on it
because they haven't read it. Tough I say. And to say that Steyn is in anyway
brilliant ignores the facts of his career so far: a drop out becomes a DJ who
becomes a arts critic who then (probably because of his relationship with
Conrad Balck) was switched to political comment. Steyn maybe a good writer but
all that I've read about him suggests that his only credible attribute is that
his political views match up with what by now must be a sizeable market in
right wing political punditry.
So far, beyond quoting a few fertility rate figures for European countries,
you have made no significant demographic argument, you have failed to note any
significant demographic study, you have not once referenced a European census
database, indeed, the only evidence you are able to put forward for
consideration are the anecdotals that Steyn includes in his book; it's not
sufficient to say that because there's a mosque next to Regent's Park it must
mean that Muslims are taking over Britain, or that because somebody in the
Netherlands has been stabbed by a Muslim, that country only has a fews years to
go before it adopts muslim laws.
Evidence that will impress me must include a statistical demographic model
showing how a Muslim minority of less than one per cent of the population (with
fertility rates exceeding 2) can and will outstrip the remaining 99 per cent
(with fertility rates just exceeding 1), bearing in mind that the relevent
muslim population for your argument are extremists. Since you're clearly a
demographic expert, get on Excel, construct the model and show the results.
Alternatively, search on Google and see what you can find.
Alternatively you could just revert to type and either call me an idiot or
else reject what I have to say because I've disqualified myself by not reading
Steyn or Huntingdon.
Simon
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