Craig wrote: > Given that cable would have no reason to collect the monthly fee > if the same program were free via an antenna, the station group > would need to pony up $2 billion - And my numbers said: > Doesn't that amount to "just" $304M of the total income ESPN makes? > > So why would a station group have to pony up $2B to replace the > subscription fees? And this assumes that all the cable audience migrated OTA, of course. But that's very unrealistic. Much more credible is that SOME of the viewership of any given sporting event is OTA. So now the numbers are even more favorable. If the Nielsen ratings show that only 15 percent of the viewership is using OTA for a sporting event (16.5M households), which sounds credible because sports nuts tend to have cable or DBS, then why should ESPN expect more than $53M from the station group(s) that carry the game OTA? I don't understand why this can't work. Again, sports fanatics who want all the ESPN streams will keep the cable companies well employed. Those less fanatic, on the other hand, might still watch the game even without cable, and can only add to the ESPN coffers. I see no need for exclusivity constraints (other than an overdose of greed). Bert ---------------------------------------------------------------------- You can UNSUBSCRIBE from the OpenDTV list in two ways: - Using the UNSUBSCRIBE command in your user configuration settings at FreeLists.org - By sending a message to: opendtv-request@xxxxxxxxxxxxx with the word unsubscribe in the subject line.