[opendtv] Re: OTA and MVPD competition

At 5:48 AM -0800 2/10/08, Dan wrote:
--- Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

 At least a significant portion of that $2.916
 billion would need to
 be replaced with advertising generated revenue, as
 it is unlikely
 that consumers would be paying this directly via
 their MPVD
 subscriptions. That money does not exist, as it
 would represent an
 increase in local advertising expenditures of more
 than 10%. The
 potential increase in audience size is not
 sufficient to justify this
 increased expenditure by advertisers. Remember, that
 85% of the
 potential audience is already viewing ESPN, IF THEY
 WANT TO.

It seems that when Monday Night Football moved from
ABC to ESPN, the ratings dropped by considerably more
than the 15% expected from losing OTA viewers. I
wonder why. Do OTA viewers contribute
disproportionately to ratings? (OTA viewers probably
watch less TV, but they have fewer choices when they
do watch).


Not true. It took a few weeks, but the ratings are exactly where one would expect. That is, down about 15% due to the loss of OTA homes.

http://www.mediaweek.com/mw/news/recent_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003254737

Indeed, early forecasts of a loss of a quarter or more of MNF's viewership have proved to be as ill-conceived as the retro porn 'stache Denver Broncos' quarterback Jake Plummer tends to sport in the latter part of the season. Compared to the 15.1 million total viewers ABC averaged with its final season of MNF over the comparable time period, the show is down just 15 percent, a trifle when ESPN's reach is factored in. (The net reaches 92.2 million households, or just about 84 percent of all U.S. TV homes.)

This was an excellent move for Disney as they get Monday night back for ABC and still reach the core audience with ESPN. And NBC has benefited as well with Sunday night football.

Regards
Craig


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