[opendtv] Re: OTA and MVPD competition

  • From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2008 17:54:48 -0500

Craig wrote:

> Given that cable would have no reason to collect the monthly fee
> if the same program were free via an antenna, the station group
> would need to pony up $2 billion -

And my numbers said:

> Doesn't that amount to "just" $304M of the total income ESPN makes?
> So why would a station group have to pony up $2B to replace the
> subscription fees?

And this assumes that all the cable audience migrated OTA, of course.
But that's very unrealistic. Much more credible is that SOME of the
viewership of any given sporting event is OTA.

So now the numbers are even more favorable. If the Nielsen ratings show
that only 15 percent of the viewership is using OTA for a sporting event
(16.5M households), which sounds credible because sports nuts tend to
have cable or DBS, then why should ESPN expect more than $53M from the
station group(s) that carry the game OTA?

I don't understand why this can't work. Again, sports fanatics who want
all the ESPN streams will keep the cable companies well employed. Those
less fanatic, on the other hand, might still watch the game even without
cable, and can only add to the ESPN coffers. I see no need for
exclusivity constraints (other than an overdose of greed).

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