[opendtv] Re: Barriers eroding to LCD TV adoption
- From: Bob Miller <bob@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 20:09:50 -0400
Manfredi, Albert E wrote:
>Cliff Benham wrote:
>
>
>
>>I think Bob meant that UHF OTA stations weren't as successful
>>until they got cable carriage...
>>
>>
>
>Maybe he did mean that, but I would still disagree. Cable didn't
>begin as an urban phenomenon until about 1981 or so, with
>gradual availability after that in the further suburbs. UHF
>stations were very well entrenched by then, and there were
>plenty of them. And tuners had gotten completely integrated
>into TV sets by then too, and worked at least as well as VHF
>tuners.
>
>Seems to me that the UHF mandate turned out to be a great
>idea, and it's not clear that UHF would have worked out
>except for the govt mandate. It's the mechanism that breaks
>the chicken/egg impasse.
>
>And, for the Libertarians among us, since the govt manages
>the spectrum, it is logical that they be the ones to decide
>how it should be used in broad terms, and consequently
>establish some baseline technical requirements on the
>receivers and transmitters.
>
>Just as the IETF and IANA do for the Internet, or the IEEE
>does for the various LANs and MANs. Some entity has to do
>this, to have a successful system.
>
>About the business models that can work with 8-VSB, I agree
>that a *necessary* condition is that reception be solid. But
>this is not sufficient. Whether USDTV or other such subscription
>services can succeed here depends on more than just good
>reception, IMO. But clearly without that, nothing can work.
>
>So now we'll see if the OTA DTT transition will turn out to
>be successful, or whether it will be irrelevant. At this point,
>I think it's only up to the broadcasters. That wasn't the case
>before, especially for those of little faith.
>
>Bert
>
>
Before the start of the first COFDM subscription service in the UK most
pundits thought it would be a major failure. I disagreed and
emphatically thought it would be a major breakout success. They failed
because IMO of bad business decisions. When Freeview started later most
again thought it had little chance of success. Same with Berlin and in
both cases I disagreed and predicted total success.
The UK sold 500,000 receivers in the fourth (Christmas) quarter and
matched that in the first quarter. Expect a million COFDM receivers to
be sold in the Christmas quarter of 2004 in the UK. The US will sell a
matching (6x) 3 million or more 8-VSB receivers in the forth quarter of
2005.
I now believe that the US will surpass both the UK and Berlin because of
the simple reason that we have a receiver that works. This now breeds
business plans that will work in the US like no where else. USDTV is
down to $19.95 and this will be zero next spring. More compelling
business plans are in the works. This is a blow out situation.
Consumer discontent with cable and satellite is at a peak. Expect a lot
of new ideas. Would have happened with COFDM in 2001.
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