[AZ-Observing] Re: Weather in AZ
- From: "Rick Tejera" <saguaroastro@xxxxxxx>
- To: <az-observing@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 29 Jan 2008 17:40:51 -0700
Or perchance Meteora decides to grace us with those 8 +/- 4 Cloudy days
around new moon weekend. That would certainly curtail the majority of us and
make it seem like there is an increase in cloudiness.
Similar to the old wives tail about more babies being born on Full moon.
Steve Berman once wrote about it. He checked birth record at several area
hospitals for several years and found no spike at all around full moon. His
conclusion was when the are a lot of screaming women in labor, some one is
bound to say "it must be a full moon" whether it is or not people will
believe it.
Perception is an interesting concept, no?
Clear Skies
Rick Tejera
Editor SACnews
Saguaro Astronomy Club
Phoenix, Arizona
www.saguaroastro.org
saguaroastro@xxxxxxx
-----Original Message-----
From: az-observing-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:az-observing-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of Richard Harshaw
Sent: Tuesday, January 29, 2008 9:26
To: az-observing@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [AZ-Observing] Re: Weather in AZ
Thanks for the data, Tom. Excellent points Maybe as we get older our =
minds fabricate the "good old days" into something better than they =
were?
Dick
-----Original Message-----
From: az-observing-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx =
[mailto:az-observing-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of Tom Polakis
Sent: Tuesday, January 29, 2008 9:07 AM
To: az-observing@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [AZ-Observing] Re: Weather in AZ
--- Richard Harshaw <rharshaw2@xxxxxxx> wrote:=20
> I'm not a big fan of the "man is causing global warming" scare-- I =
think it
> is more likely due to solar activity and natural planetary cycles. =
But one
> does wonder if this may not be due to a global climate change?
I am a big fan of analyzing data, and drawing conclusions from it, as =
everybody on this list should be. If I am not intimately involved in a =
particular discipline such as climatology, I trust the conclusions of =
the science community more than anybody.
The recent cloudiness in Arizona hasn't been any more than slightly =
below average. Brian Skiff has been gathering cloudiness data for =
Flagstaff since 1980 =
(http://www.lowell.edu/Research/cloudiness_data/clouds.html), and i have =
the yearly data plotted through 2006 here.
http://members.cox.net/tpolakis/astro/clouds1.jpg
You can see that there really was no "golden age" when it was always =
clear in Arizona.
Now look at this monthly plot of average with 1-sigma standard =
deviation.
http://members.cox.net/tpolakis/astro/clouds3.jpg
Typical number of "clear" nights for for Winter are:
December: 11 +/- 4
January: 10.5 +/- 4
What we have so far for 2007-08 (assuming cloudy nights through the rest =
of January) are:
December: 8
January: 7
So you could say that this Winter storm season has been worse than =
average for observing, but only slightly so.
Tom
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