At 8:14 PM -0400 9/25/08, Manfredi, Albert E wrote:
If the TV networks themselves, i.e. the congloms, are willing to put their content on the Internet, as this article explained (and they are doing to some extent now), doesn't that change the whole equation? Now any ISP can distribute that however that ISP deems best, through their net. The article was saying that as of now, this Internet content is only going to PCs. Implying, it's not used nearly as much as it might be. Appropriately designed STBs could change that. (Or people getting used to connecting TV plasmas or big LCDs to their PCs.) The problem is "only" that heavy investment by the ISPs is needed. But the point is, it could change everything about TV content distribution, if the congloms so decide.
Several aspects of this issue have been glossed over here.First, most pre-produced content can be delivered at much lower bit rates than John's 16 Mbps. Apple is delivering 720P HD movies and TV shows at about 3-4 Mbps. Even 7-8 Mbps with AVC is possible with Internent download.
Second, if a program is pre-produced, the real issue is getting people to make an appointment to watch the show. This does not work well for broadcasts today - getting people to schedule their time around live broadcasts is growing increasingly difficult. But Tivo solves this problem, IF the viewer takes the time to program the DVR to capture their favorite shows. But some folks will forget, which fuels the market for MVPD On Demand services and Internet streaming/download.
What is more likely to happen is that we will see people subscribing to IP multicasts. This will require nothing more that is done today with existing Internet protocols like RSS. You will simply mark your favorite shows and they will be downloads - along with thousands or millions of other homes with a single IP multicast of the show.
Streaming/download services are working reasonably well today without multicasts. IT's not true on demand like cable, but it only takes a few minutes to pre-load the buffers so that you can start watching while the rest of the show is being downloaded.
In short, broadcasters have no particular advantage in delivering pre-produced content - thier two major advantages are LIVE and wireless.
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