[opendtv] Re: Recovery based on CE
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Wed, 9 Jun 2004 11:39:42 -0400
At 5:12 PM -0400 6/7/04, Manfredi, Albert E wrote:
>Oops. That "train" again. But this time, it might truly have
>left the station, and I think this is how we're going to see
>the price of DTT receivers drop dramatically. This in spite
>of the much more cautious recovery we're in, according to the
>article. Digital TV, among other CE products, it says, will
>play a major role.
There is little doubt that the cost of the "chips" needed to
implement an ATSC/Cable ready DTV receiver will become more
affordable. The shift to higher density chips will play a role in
this, as will the increasing volumes of chips needed as more people
buy ATSC capable receivers.
But this is only a small part of the story.
What contribution will the cost of the "chips" have relative to the
overall cost of the display, which is not riding the same Moore's law
driven cost/performance curve as the chips?
This week, there have been a flurry of announcements about the new
2004/2005 model year DTV receivers. In general it looks the the
prices are going up, not down. Why?
Because the quality of the display is going up, while a bunch of new
features are being added.
There is a pronounced shift away from CRT-based displays, which to be
completely honest, struggle to deliver the HDTV viewing experience.
The CRt is being replaced by displays with addressable pixel
technologies including DLP, LcoS, LCD, Plasma etc.
Unfortunately, none of these technologies are able to take advantage
of the improvements in chip manufacturing discussed in the article.
Atually, there may be some impact relative to the driver circuitry,
but the actual display elements are not able to benefit much from
these process improvements. They are able to respond to manufacturing
volumes, thus we are beginning to see some reductions in the cost of
LCD panels and RP displays, as well as DLP RP displays. I find it
interesting that Toshiba is moving away from LCoS to DLP, based on
claims that they cannot get enough LCoS chips.
What does all of this mean?
For one thing, any display (other than CRTs) that is direct view or
RP, will continue to be fairly expensive. We are beginning to see
some LCD panels at price points below $1000, but an equivalent sized
CRT costs less than $200. And any addressable display that is larger
than 40 inches will continue to cost in excess of $2,000 for the next
few years. CRT-based projection will continue to plug the gap between
$1,000 and $2,000.
The reduction in cost of the chips needed to build an ATSC receiver
may help reduce the cost differential relative to today's NTSC
receivers, but only if the new displays use legacy CRTs.
Thus the real question remains:
Will people pay a 2-3x premium for an entry level ATSC receiver based
on something other than a CRT display?
I suspect that they will, IF they perceive other benefits from this
investment. The ability to use the display for both legacy TV
viewing, AND to view new forms of information that take advantage of
the addressable display could be an important driver in future
upgrades.
The good news, is that cheaper chips WILL help drive down the cost of
ATSC STBs for use with existing NTSC displays. IF Chairman Barton is
able to put a fixed date on the return of the analog spectrum by
subsidizing STBs for low income families, this will be an important
factor.
Regards
Craig
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