[opendtv] Re: Recovery based on CE
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Wed, 9 Jun 2004 16:19:21 -0400
At 11:57 AM -0700 6/9/04, Mike Enright wrote:
>Panasonic PDP's are going down in price. The tunerless "industrial" 50"
>display they sell has gone from $6500 at the online vendors at its
>introduction to about $5000 now. The "consumer" panels have tracked this
>but since they have NTSC tuners and will have to have ATSC tuners, my
>claim isn't as strong. Prices are down, but there are new models in the
>picture already.
>
>LCD prices seem to be going down, not as clearly with the same
>product/brand, but in the mode of low price brands getting into the
>market (Sceptre 30" at about $1800 vs. Dell 30" at, well a lot more).
>
>Perhaps you have made different observations.
I agree that some technologies are coming down in price as volumes
increase. I painted with too broad a brush, as I was mostly thinking
about CRT based HDTV displays when I made the comment.
As has been noted here, there was a huge shift in purchasing behavior
during the last selling season, mostly to more expensive display
technologies - away from less expensive CRT-based displays. The
average price of a CRT-based RP-HDTV has indeed dropped over the past
few years; many units now sell for less than $2,000. But people chose
to spend more for better quality displays, and now the manufacturers
are responding with many new models based on DLP and LCD components -
the result is that the prices I have seen in the announcements this
week (which are also inflated by the ATSC/Cable ready tuners) have
gone up, not down.
And while the prices are coming down for LCD and plasma panels, they
still need to drop significantly to become viable replacements for
CRT-based displays. As I noted before, the CE industry NEEDS to come
up with compelling ways to deliver new forms of content to the more
expensive addressable displays to help overcome the perception that
an HDTV is just an expensive TV receiver. Ironically, this may mean
that the much ballyhooed need for "convergence" may actually get some
legs, as CE retailers try to convince potential customers that they
are buying more than just another TV.
>Plasma is obviously not as mature as CRT, but it has been delivered in
>volume at 50" for a while now. LCD's are a different story in the large
>size, obviously small ones have been on the market for a long time in
>laptops.
People love plasma because they can hang it on the wall. But most
knowledgeable consumers know that they are buying a "light bulb" that
will need to be replaced in 3-5 years. This is not a problem for
people who have plenty of expendable cash. LCD appears to represent a
better solution, at least in terms of long term reliability, however,
it is suffering from other marketplace realities. The manufacturing
is coming on line to produce larger substrates, however these
substrates can be used for many products.
A single 50" (16:9) LCD panel takes about 1065 square inches of
substrate. That same substrate can produce four 24" 16:9 panels, or a
bunch of smaller panels. Thus the price of big panels is going to
remain high until the cost of smaller panels drops considerably. LCD
panels could replace the direct view CRT - much will depend on how
their value is perceived by consumers.
>
> >
>Costco.com: Sceptre 30" LCD for about $1800. SVA 42" PDP for $2300. I
>wouldn't have expected to find these prices but they are there in
>black-and-white. I didn't look them up for this reply, I happened to
>look at them yesterday for another reason. And there have been 15" LCD
>panels with NTSC tuners below $1000 for a long time, like 3 years or so.
>I don't dispute there is a huge gap between CRT and fixed addressable
>displays, I just have different observations than you as to where the
>gap seems to be.
The Costco web site shows a Sceptre 20" 4:3 LCD TV for $699.99. The
web site does not list any direct view CRT TVs, although they do have
a Toshiba MD20P1 20" Television w/Built-in DVD Player for $199.99.
Best Buy offers a Magnavox - 20" Stereo TV with Smart Sound 20MS233S
for $124.99. That still more than a 5x premium for an LCD TV, and it
does not reflect the cost of an ATSC tuner.
The Costoc Web Site has several dozen HD capable displays. The only
ones that are less than $2,000 are CRT based.
Regards
Craig
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