[opendtv] Re: Recovery based on CE
- From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Wed, 9 Jun 2004 15:56:48 -0400
Craig Birkmaier wrote:
> There is little doubt that the cost of the "chips" needed to
> implement an ATSC/Cable ready DTV receiver will become more
> affordable. The shift to higher density chips will play a role in
> this, as will the increasing volumes of chips needed as more people
> buy ATSC capable receivers.
>
> But this is only a small part of the story.
>
> What contribution will the cost of the "chips" have relative to the
> overall cost of the display, which is not riding the same Moore's law
> driven cost/performance curve as the chips?
These are two orthogonal discussions. Unless you think that only
TVs with fancy new types of dispay will ever be built with
integrated digital front ends.
People have been complaining about the high price of DTV sets for
this Aunt Nellie. Aunt Nellie will presumably not care about some
fancy plasma. She just wants to keep watching TV.
I'm sure that LCD sets will soon be cost competitive with CRTs, but
regardless, there will continue to be a market for low-price TV sets
and TV recorders, after NTSC is shut down. That's what I'm talking
about. Not the top of the line models that use the extra image
quality, multichannel sound, TiVo style subscription EPGs, or other
stuff.
That article I quoted showed that chip integration is proceeding at
a very rapid pace, even with the slow recovery in the economy (not
so slow anymore, actually). Greater integration will have a whole
lot to do with the price of integrated sets by 2007 or 2009, and
beyond, when these will be Aunt Nellie's only option.
That, and the fact that we seem to have finally reached a point
where receiver designs are becoming "good enough," so that
manufacturers can settle down to cost reduction rather than
frantic R&D. It's 2004 still. We have a few more years to let
manufacturers work on price reductions.
Royalties will eventually run out. I'm confident that these
digital front ends (ATSC/cable/satellite) will become as
unobtrusive as built-in NTSC front ends are today.
Bert
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