[spotters-illianaskywarn] Fwd: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
- From: Keith Reedy <keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Fri, 7 Sep 2012 11:39:38 -0400
Keith Reedy
keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
Begin forwarded message:
> From: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
> Date: September 7, 2012 11:16:27 AM EDT
> To: keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> Reply-To: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>
> You are subscribed to SPC Mesoscale Discussion for NOAA's National Weather
> Service.
>
>
> SPC MD 1910
> 09/07/2012 11:10 AM EDT
>
> MD 1910 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR
> IND...WRN OH...CNTRL IL
>
>
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1910
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 1009 AM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012
>
> AREAS AFFECTED...IND...WRN OH...CNTRL IL
>
> CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
>
> VALID 071509Z - 071715Z
>
> PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
>
> SUMMARY...ONGOING/LARGELY ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS SHOULD BECOME
> INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED AS DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS HEATS AND
> DESTABILIZES. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
> EMBEDDED ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND PROBABLE UPSCALE GROWTH ALONG THE
> LEADING FLANK WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.
>
> DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS GENERALLY SURGED S OF
> THE REMNANT MCS ACROSS CNTRL IL...THE LEADING PORTION OF THE MCS HAS
> TAKEN ON A MORE N/S-ORIENTATION THAT IS PERPENDICULAR TO THE
> DEEP-LAYER WLY FLOW. AS SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM AND
> WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S BASED ON THE 12Z ILN
> RAOB...ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL BECOME SURFACE-BASED. SOME UNCERTAINTY
> DOES EXISTS ON WHEN THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR. BUT AMIDST FAVORABLE
> 0-6 KM SPEED SHEAR AS SAMPLED BY THE WOLCOTT IND
> PROFILER...CONVECTION WILL INTENSIFY AT SOME POINT AND LIKELY
> DEVELOP EMBEDDED SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
> WINDS.
>
> ..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 09/07/2012
>
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
>
> ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...
>
> LAT...LON 41408583 41398416 40538371 39888405 39348492 38888783
> 39088885 39428904 39948873 40438720 41408583
>
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