[spotters-illianaskywarn] Fwd: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update

Keith Reedy
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Begin forwarded message:

> From: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: October 24, 2010 4:51:02 PM EDT
> To: keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
> 
> SPC MD 1978
> Sun, 24 Oct 2010 15:39:05 -0500
> 
> 
> 
> 
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1978
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 0338 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010
> 
> AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/EASTERN MO AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN IL
> 
> CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
> 
> VALID 242038Z - 242245Z
> 
> SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
> ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF MO INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN
> IL. WHILE THE EXACT TIMING/EXTENT OF A CONSEQUENTIAL SEVERE RISK IS
> IN QUESTION...INCREASING DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD LIKELY
> PROMPT A WATCH ISSUANCE FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
> 
> THE REGION HAS LARGELY BEEN BETWEEN INFLUENCES OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT
> SINCE THIS MORNING...NOTABLY BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
> THE ARKLATEX AND A WEAKER CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
> HOWEVER...WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MO
> VALLEY...TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR GRADUALLY INCREASING /ALBEIT STILL
> MODEST/ CONFLUENCE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS
> EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MO INTO SOUTHERN IL...AMID A CORRIDOR OF
> MAXIMIZED 2-HR PRESSURE FALLS THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
> MOISTURE /UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ AND PASSING
> HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAVE HINDERED THE DEGREE OF
> DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/ADJUSTED RUC
> SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATIVE OF RELATIVELY WEAK CINH...WITH A CORRIDOR
> OF WEAK OF MODERATE MLCAPE FROM 750 TO 1500 J/KG /HIGHEST ACROSS
> SOUTHEAST MO/. 
> 
> PERHAPS AIDED BY GLANCING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND OTHERWISE
> COOLING/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT INTO TONIGHT...VARIOUS MODEL
> GUIDANCE...INCLUDING 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND 12Z WRF-NMM/16Z
> HRRR3...IMPLY POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS
> CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING /GENERALLY BY 00Z/.
> PER CONWAY/BLOOMFIELD MO PROFILERS...RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
> FLOW WITH 35-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A COMBINATION
> OF SUPERCELLS/SOME BOWS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND THE
> POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO OR TWO.
> 
> ..GUYER.. 10/24/2010
> 
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
> 
> ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF...
> 
> LAT...LON   41008945 40188737 37768832 36768965 36499094 37529210
>             41008945 
> 
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> 
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