Keith Reedy keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx Begin forwarded message: > From: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> > Subject: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update > Date: September 7, 2012 11:16:27 AM EDT > To: keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx > Reply-To: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> > > You are subscribed to SPC Mesoscale Discussion for NOAA's National Weather > Service. > > > SPC MD 1910 > 09/07/2012 11:10 AM EDT > > MD 1910 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR > IND...WRN OH...CNTRL IL > > > MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1910 > NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK > 1009 AM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012 > > AREAS AFFECTED...IND...WRN OH...CNTRL IL > > CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY > > VALID 071509Z - 071715Z > > PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT > > SUMMARY...ONGOING/LARGELY ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS SHOULD BECOME > INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED AS DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS HEATS AND > DESTABILIZES. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR > EMBEDDED ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND PROBABLE UPSCALE GROWTH ALONG THE > LEADING FLANK WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. > > DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS GENERALLY SURGED S OF > THE REMNANT MCS ACROSS CNTRL IL...THE LEADING PORTION OF THE MCS HAS > TAKEN ON A MORE N/S-ORIENTATION THAT IS PERPENDICULAR TO THE > DEEP-LAYER WLY FLOW. AS SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM AND > WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S BASED ON THE 12Z ILN > RAOB...ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL BECOME SURFACE-BASED. SOME UNCERTAINTY > DOES EXISTS ON WHEN THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR. BUT AMIDST FAVORABLE > 0-6 KM SPEED SHEAR AS SAMPLED BY THE WOLCOTT IND > PROFILER...CONVECTION WILL INTENSIFY AT SOME POINT AND LIKELY > DEVELOP EMBEDDED SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING > WINDS. > > ..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 09/07/2012 > > ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... > > ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX... > > LAT...LON 41408583 41398416 40538371 39888405 39348492 38888783 > 39088885 39428904 39948873 40438720 41408583 > > Read more > > > > > To change your subscriptions or preferences log in to your Subscriber > Preferences Page with your e-mail address. > > Delete profile > > For questions or problems with the subscription service, please contact > support@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx > > This service is provided by NOAA's National Weather Service. > > > > GovDelivery, Inc. (800-439-1420) sending to keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx on behalf > of the National Weather Service · 1325 East West Highway · Silver Spring, MD > 20910