[spotters-illianaskywarn] Fwd: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
- From: Keith Reedy <wa9dro@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Sat, 26 Jun 2010 13:24:53 -0400
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Begin forwarded message:
> From: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: June 26, 2010 1:11:07 PM EDT
> To: keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
>
> SPC Public Severe Weather Outlook
> Sat, 26 Jun 2010 12:07:03 -0500
>
>
>
> PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 1205 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010
>
> ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI
> VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...
>
> THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
> DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS
> OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY UPPER MIDWEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
>
> THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
>
> NORTHWESTERN IOWA
> SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
> NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
> SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
>
> ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
> NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
> VALLEY.
>
> AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...ALONG WITH A
> TRAILING COLD FRONT...WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA
> THIS AFTERNOON AND IOWA/MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN TONIGHT.
>
> AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM....THE AIR MASS WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE AND
> STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD
> FRONT...AND ALONG A WARM FRONT IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE AIR MASS
> ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE AND INTENSE SUPERCELLS ARE
> EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE
> BASEBALL SIZED AND LARGER HAIL. ALSO...A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO
> EXPECTED...AND ONE OR TWO OF THESE TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG...AS
> WELL AS A FEW VERY DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. THE PERIOD WHEN THE MOST
> INTENSE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WILL BE FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
> MID EVENING.
>
> Read more
>
>
> SPC MD 1130
> Sat, 26 Jun 2010 12:05:06 -0500
>
>
>
>
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1130
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 1204 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010
>
> AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN SD...SWRN MN.
>
> CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
>
> VALID 261704Z - 261800Z
>
> INITIALLY ISOLATED/ELEVATED TSTMS NEAR HON MAY CONTINUE THREAT FOR
> LARGE HAIL...WHILE TURNING MORE ESEWD...POTENTIALLY INCREASING IN
> COVERAGE AND INTRODUCING THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS FOR ACTIVITY
> MOVING TOWARD TO SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS.
>
> SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER E-CENTRAL SD
> CONVECTION...DRAWN ALONG ARC FROM ATY-MHE TO SRN TRIPP COUNTY. WRN
> PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS FCST TO DECELERATE NEAR NEB/SD BORDER.
> HOWEVER...ERN PORTION MAY CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD...DESPITE BECOMING
> MORE SHALLOW...DUE TO ADDITIONAL NLY COMPONENT BEING FORCED
> ISALLOBARICALLY ALONG W SIDE OF MESOLOW ANALYZED BETWEEN MHE...BKX
> AND FSD. THIS IS SEPARATE AND DISTINCT FROM INITIAL/PRIMARY SFC
> CYCLONE STILL EVIDENT NEAR PHP. QUASISTATIONARY SFC TROUGH IS
> ANALYZED FROM MESOLOW WWD ACROSS ERN SD...JUST W OF I-29. FLOW E OF
> THIS TROUGH IS MORE ELY AND STABLE. WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM
> MESOLOW ESEWD ACROSS SWRN MN TO IA BORDER JUST S SW FRM...AND SHOULD
> DRIFT NWD. RECENT RIGHTWARD TURN OF HON-AREA CONVECTION MAY
> CONTINUE GIVEN DIFFERENTIAL DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED ALONG AND S OF
> WARM FRONT...AND STABLE AIR HOLDING IN PLACE E OF INVERTED TROUGH.
> STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...INCREASING SFC HEATING...AND DEW POINTS
> 70S F WILL BOOST MLCAPE ABOVE 3000 J/KG NEAR LOW AND S OF WARM
> FRONT...WHILE GRADUALLY REMOVING MLCINH. 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
> MAGNITUDES SUPPORT RISK FOR SUPERCELL STORM MODE. SHOULD EXISTING
> CONVECTION IMPINGE ON THIS AIR MASS AND/OR DEVELOP FARTHER SWD NEAR
> OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS TORNADOES
> MAY BEGIN EARLY AND WW WOULD BE REQUIRED SOONER...RATHER THAN
> HOLDING TO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY
> ALONG/E OF TROUGH AND N OF WARM FRONT.
>
> ..EDWARDS.. 06/26/2010
>
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
>
> ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...
>
> LAT...LON 43229912 43829847 44459830 44829728 44699561 44289531
> 43909561 43259726 43039870 43229912
>
> Read more
>
>
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