[spotters-illianaskywarn] Fwd: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
- From: Keith Reedy <keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Fri, 13 May 2011 20:53:39 -0400
Keith Reedy
keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
Begin forwarded message:
> From: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: May 13, 2011 5:48:50 PM EDT
> To: keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
> Reply-To: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>
> You are subscribed to SPC Mesoscale Discussion for NOAA's National Weather
> Service.
>
>
>
> SPC MD 778
>
> 05/13/2011 05:41 PM EDT
>
> MD 0778 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR EASTERN MO AND
> MUCH OF DOWNSTATE IL
>
>
>
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0778
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 0440 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011
>
> AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN MO AND MUCH OF DOWNSTATE IL
>
> CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
>
> VALID 132140Z - 132315Z
>
> BOUTS OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL /AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO/ WILL
> BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND SUNSET FROM FAR EASTERN MO INTO MUCH OF
> DOWNSTATE IL.
>
> WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REFLECTS A CLOSED/NEARLY STACKED CYCLONE
> SHIFTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN MO LATE THIS
> AFTERNOON...WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM FAR
> EASTERN MO NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN IL. AIDED BY STEEP LAPSE
> RATES ALOFT ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER LOW...THE FRONTAL ADJACENT WARM
> SECTOR IS RELATIVELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000
> J/KG. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK PER REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP
> DATA...PULSE-TYPE HAIL TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
> ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL LAPSE
> RATES/CAPE IN VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
> BOUNDARY...FUNNELS/PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
> WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM NEAR/NORTH OF THE ST LOUIS AREA NORTHEASTWARD
> INTO NORTH-CENTRAL IL UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.
>
> ..GUYER.. 05/13/2011
>
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
>
> ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
>
> LAT...LON 39169124 40449063 41698905 40928810 39788856 38428880
> 37738840 37648970 39169124
>
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