[spotters-illianaskywarn] Fwd: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update

Keith Reedy
keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx



Begin forwarded message:

> From: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: June 25, 2011 4:05:34 PM EDT
> To: keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
> Reply-To: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> 
> You are subscribed to SPC Mesoscale Discussion for NOAA's National Weather 
> Service.
> 
> 
> SPC MD 1383
> 06/25/2011 04:00 PM EDT
> 
> MD 1385 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 549... FOR PORTIONS ERN MO...SRN 
> IL...SWRN INDIANA...WRN KY...WRN-MIDDLE TN. 
> 
> 
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1385
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 0259 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011
> 
> AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN INDIANA...WRN
> KY...WRN-MIDDLE TN.
> 
> CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 549...
> 
> VALID 251959Z - 252130Z
> 
> THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 549
> CONTINUES.
> 
> CONTINUE WW.  IN ADDITION TO EXISTING CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR
> SWD BACKBUILDING...TSTMS MAY MOVE INTO THIS REGION LATE IN WW VALID
> TIME FRAME FROM AREAS OF SERN KS OR SWRN MO.  AREAS S AND E OF WW
> WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL ISSUANCE AS TRENDS
> WARRANT.
> 
> SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SEVERAL POTENTIALLY IMPORTANT FEATURES...
> 1. MAIN SFC WARM FRONT FROM ERN AL NWWD THROUGH HSV-FAM
> LINE...BLENDING WITH
> 2. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER MCS THAT EXTENDS GENERALLY WWD
> ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SWRN MO INTO SERN KS AND AREA COVERED BY SPC
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1383.  THIS MAY SUPPORT LATER
> DEVELOPMENT/MOTION OF CONVECTION INTO SRN MO.
> 3. SECONDARY/NRN WARM FRONTAL ZONE FROM STL AREA SEWD ACROSS WRN
> KY...NEAR SWRN FRINGE OF PERSISTENT BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT
> STILL MAY POST THREAT FOR ISOLATED/MRGL HAIL AND GUSTS.
> 4. STG PRESSURE FALLS -- I.E. UP TO ABOUT 7 MB PER 2-HOUR
> WAKE-DEPRESSION OVER NERN MO THAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY REMOVED
> FROM MOST FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC REGIME.  AMPLITUDE OF
> ISALLOBARIC WAVE ALSO IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS EARLIER TODAY...WITH
> MUCH WEAKER RISES.
> 
> LATTER FACTOR APPEARS TO REDUCE -- BUT DEFINITELY NOT ELIMINATE --
> POTENTIAL FOR WELL-ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND EVENT.  DEVELOPMENT OF
> HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELLS STILL MAY OCCUR WITH SOME RISK FOR UPSCALE
> GROWN AND DEVELOPMENT OF NEW COLD POOL S OF ORIGINAL ONE.  IN
> MEANTIME...ANY SUCH STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT GUSTS AND
> LARGE HAIL...WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL MORE CONDITIONAL ON STORM-SCALE
> PROCESSES.  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR HAS INCREASED ACROSS WW AREA -- E.G.
> EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 45-50 KT ESTIMATED FROM MODIFIED RUC
> SOUNDINGS -- PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO GRADIENT ENHANCEMENT ALOFT S OF
> IA MCV AND PARTLY DUE TO BACKING OF NEAR-SFC WINDS BETWEEN WARM
> FRONTAL SEGMENTS.  GIVEN STG DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND RELATED
> ANTICYCLONIC/SEWD SHIFT OF MID-UPPER FLOW ACROSS WRN KY AND WRN/MID
> TN...AND FAVORABLY BUOYANT/MOIST AIR MASS DOWNSHEAR...ANY COMPLEX
> THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER WW AREA SHOULD TURN MORE ESEWD/SEWD.
> 
> ..EDWARDS.. 06/25/2011
> 
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
> 
> ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...
> 
> LAT...LON   38309110 38909000 37688689 35378664 35128748 35338846
>             35598909 36228988 36859079 38309110 
> 
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