[spotters-illianaskywarn] Fwd: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
- From: Keith Reedy <keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2011 14:32:50 -0400
Keith Reedy
keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
Begin forwarded message:
> From: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: June 20, 2011 2:27:50 PM EDT
> To: keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
> Reply-To: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>
> You are subscribed to SPC Mesoscale Discussion for NOAA's National Weather
> Service.
>
>
> SPC MD 1319
> 06/20/2011 02:05 PM EDT
>
> MD 1319 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CNTRL IL/IND
>
>
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1319
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 0104 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011
>
> AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL/IND
>
> CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
>
> VALID 201804Z - 201900Z
>
> ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
> AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO NECESSITATE A WW
> ISSUANCE.
>
> CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HAS GENERALLY LIMITED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH
> OF IL/IND...WITH MODIFIED 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS INDICATING CONVECTIVE
> INHIBITION REMAINING...THOUGH THIS MAY BE CLOSE TO BEING OVERCOME.
> HOWEVER...AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
> TO THE WEST WILL ALSO BEGIN TO ADVECT EWD...WITH WARMING LOW LEVEL
> TO MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THEREFORE...ONLY A NARROW WINDOW
> WILL EXIST FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS.
> OTHERWISE...A SUBTLE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL CONTINUE
> TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF A SERIES OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
> ACROSS IL/IND...AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS NWRN IL. GIVEN THE
> MAINTENANCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7.5 TO 8.5 C/KM PER
> UPSTREAM 12Z SOUNDINGS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS/ AND VERY STRONG
> WNWLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ELEVATED
> STORMS THAT CAN SUSTAIN A STRONGER UPDRAFT. UPPER RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE
> BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL LIKELY HINDER A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT.
>
> ..HURLBUT.. 06/20/2011
>
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
>
> ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...
>
> LAT...LON 38928811 39568995 40318961 40808817 40718676 40578532
> 40278488 39548502 39328512 38928811
>
> Read more
> SPC Public Severe Weather Outlook
> 06/20/2011 12:33 PM EDT
>
> Public Severe Weather Outlook
> PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 1132 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011
>
> ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
> AND MIDDLE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
>
> THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
> DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES OVER
> PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS
> AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
>
> THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
>
> WESTERN IOWA
> EASTERN KANSAS
> NORTHWEST MISSOURI
> EASTERN NEBRASKA
> EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
> SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
>
> ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
> UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...UPPER OHIO RIVER
> VALLEY...APPALACHAINS...AND CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
>
> A STRONG LATE SPRING STORM SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PLAINS
> TODAY AND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...HOT...HUMID...AND WINDY
> CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS
> AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SEVERE
> THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS
> AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND
> WESTERN IOWA THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHER INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
> DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SOUTHWARD INTO
> EASTERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH THESE STORMS REACHING
> WESTERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATER THIS EVENING. ALL OF
> THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
> TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
> Read more
>
>
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