[spotters-illianaskywarn] Fwd: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
- From: Keith Reedy <wa9dro@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Wed, 15 Dec 2010 21:28:15 -0500
Keith Reedy
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Begin forwarded message:
> From: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: December 15, 2010 7:26:05 PM EST
> To: keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
>
> SPC MD 2129
> Wed, 15 Dec 2010 18:19:06 -0600
>
>
>
>
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2129
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 0618 PM CST WED DEC 15 2010
>
> AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN IL / SRN IND / WRN-CNTRL KY / NRN TN
>
> CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
>
> VALID 160018Z - 160415Z
>
> WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN
> EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS NEAR KENTUCKIANA AND N-CNTRL KY WHERE A MIX OF
> PRECIP TYPES WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
> OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOURLY FREEZING RAIN RATES MAY APPROACH 0.05-0.10
> INCH BY 06Z ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL KY.
>
> SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A CYCLONE OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH HIGH
> PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OH RIVER VALLEY. AS THE SRN
> PLAINS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NE TOWARDS THE LOWER OH VALLEY LATE
> TONIGHT...A BROAD ZONE OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT /AIDED BY 50+
> KT SWLY LLJ/ WILL HELP IN FOCUSING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
> ACROSS THE REGION ATOP A SLOW TO MODIFY COLD DOME. SURFACE TEMPS
> ACROSS THE REGION ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 DEG F WITH
> DEWPOINTS 10-20 DEG F. THIS WILL ALLOW WET BULB EFFECTS TO
> INITIALLY COOL THE SURFACE BEFORE WARMING TEMPS OVER WRN TN ADVECT
> NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN KY AND PARTS OF MIDDLE TN LATE...LEADING
> TO SOME CHANGEOVER FROM FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN.
>
> AN INFLUX OF RICHER MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES 0.5-0.75
> INCH IS NOW SPREADING INTO THE REGION. 00Z BNA RAOB SHOWS AN
> APPRECIABLE WARM LAYER /4 DEG C AT 825 MB/ FAVORING FREEZING RAIN.
> FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOW-MID LEVELS GRADUALLY COMING TO
> SATURATION IN THE 02-04Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS KY AND ADJACENT STATES.
> THIS WILL PROBABLY YIELD INITIALLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET RATES
> THROUGH 03Z. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS
> FOR SLANTWISE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS 06Z
> AND THEREAFTER--ACTING TO ENHANCE PRECIP RATES. THE HEAVIER RATES
> /0.05-0.10 INCH PER HOUR/ ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE
> 03-06Z PERIOD.
>
> ..SMITH.. 12/16/2010
>
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
>
> ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
>
> LAT...LON 35818424 36328667 37728950 38538960 39028904 39068774
> 38158497 37058364 36298353 35818424
>
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