[spotters-illianaskywarn] Fwd: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
- From: Keith Reedy <keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Sun, 22 May 2011 15:16:48 -0400
Keith Reedy
keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
Begin forwarded message:
> From: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: May 22, 2011 3:03:45 PM EDT
> To: keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
> Reply-To: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>
> You are subscribed to SPC Mesoscale Discussion for NOAA's National Weather
> Service.
>
>
>
> SPC MD 856
>
> 05/22/2011 02:52 PM EDT
>
> MD 0856 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CNTRL/ERN
> IND...WRN/SRN OH...FAR NRN KY
>
>
>
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0856
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 0151 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
>
> AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IND...WRN/SRN OH...FAR NRN KY
>
> CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
>
> VALID 221851Z - 221945Z
>
> AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS
> A TORNADO IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORM COVERAGE
> MAY REMAIN SPORADIC GIVEN AN ILL-DEFINED SYNOPTIC-SCALE FOCUS...A WW
> ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 20Z.
>
> A RECENT FLARE-UP IN TSTM ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED ALONG AND N OF THE
> OH VALLEY. OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL SETUP DOES APPEAR SLIGHTLY MORE
> MARGINAL RELATIVE TO AREAS WITHIN WW 324. NEVERTHELESS...A
> MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 2000
> J/KG AND MODERATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25 TO 35 KT...WILL SUPPORT
> OCCASIONAL UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. GIVEN BROAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
> ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER MS VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH...TSTM
> COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE UPPER OH VALLEY.
>
> ..GRAMS.. 05/22/2011
>
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
>
> ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...
> IND...
>
> LAT...LON 38678626 39648692 41198552 41658503 41818444 41778388
> 40998295 40718268 39998170 39408166 38918196 38318233
> 38098268 38548413 38548501 38678626
>
> Read more
>
>
> SPC MD 855
>
> 05/22/2011 02:50 PM EDT
>
> MD 0855 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR ERN WI...NRN
> IL
>
>
>
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0855
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 0149 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
>
> AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WI...NRN IL
>
> CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
>
> VALID 221849Z - 221945Z
>
> CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON AND A
> TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM ERN WI INTO NRN IL.
>
> SURFACE MAP SHOWS RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER ERN WI/NRN IL
> WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 50S F. HOWEVER...MID 60S TO NEAR 70S F
> BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE LURKING UPSTREAM OVER SERN IA AND CNTRL
> IL...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY EVENING. ALSO AT THAT
> TIME...WIND PROFILES WILL HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
> WITH A THREAT OF TORNADOES. THE 18Z DVN SOUNDING SHOWS VERY STEEP
> LAPSE RATES ALOFT WITH MINIMAL CAPPING...ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER
> WIND FIELDS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE.
>
> ACTIVITY HAS FORMED ALONG THE GRAVITY WAVE OVER CNTRL IL...AND THEY
> MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH TIME. FARTHER N... A LEAD BAND OF
> CONVECTION WILL TRAVERSE WI WITH PERHAPS A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT.
> HOWEVER...THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL EVOLVE OUT OF THE DRYLINE
> STORMS OVER E CNTRL IA AND NRN MO...WITH TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
> HAIL AS THEY CROSS THE MS INTO WI AND IL.
>
> ..JEWELL.. 05/22/2011
>
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
>
> ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...
>
> LAT...LON 41068933 42688945 44458993 45259071 45518888 45128755
> 44268741 41148764 41068933
>
> Read more
>
>
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