Keith Reedy keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx Begin forwarded message: > From: GovDelivery Weather Updates <weatherupdates@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> > Subject: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update > Date: May 30, 2013 12:36:57 PM EDT > To: keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx > Reply-To: weatherupdates@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx > > > > You are subscribed to SPC Mesoscale Discussion for NOAA's National Weather > Service. > GovDelivery provides this service using unaltered NOAA/NWS products. > > > SPC MD 876 > 05/30/2013 12:30 PM EDT > > MD 0876 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR ERN MO...IL...SERN IA > > > MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0876 > NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK > 1129 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013 > > AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO...IL...SERN IA > > CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY > > VALID 301629Z - 301730Z > > PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT > > SUMMARY...SCATTERED TSTMS FORMING ACROSS SERN MO WILL LIKELY > COALESCE INTO N/NEWD MOVING ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS THIS > AFTERNOON. PRIMARY RISK SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT ISOLATED > SEVERE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WW WILL BE > COORDINATED SHORTLY. > > DISCUSSION...AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES DOWNSTREAM OF THE > AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SEVERE THREAT WILL > CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. VEER-BACK-VEER WIND > PROFILES AND THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD FOSTER > CONVECTION FORMING INTO CLUSTERS/SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS. > STILL...MODERATE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED > SUPERCELLS. > > ..GRAMS/MEAD.. 05/30/2013 > > ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... > > ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF... > > LAT...LON 41449170 41829016 41608881 41068843 38758866 37018974 > 36649089 36759138 39379178 41449170 > > Read more > SPC MD 875 > 05/30/2013 12:21 PM EDT > > MD 0875 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NERN IA...CNTRL/SRN > WI...FAR SERN MN > > > MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0875 > NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK > 1120 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013 > > AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA...CNTRL/SRN WI...FAR SERN MN > > CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY > > VALID 301620Z - 301815Z > > PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT > > SUMMARY...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF > THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND SHOULD DEEPEN INTO TSTMS SHORTLY. > COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING DESTABILIZATION AMIDST STRONG LOW-LEVEL > SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS WITH ALL > HAZARDS POSSIBLE. > > DISCUSSION...AS MLCIN HAS BECOME MINIMIZED...SCATTERED CONVECTION > HAS FORMED ACROSS NERN IA INTO FAR SWRN WI DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORTWAVE > IMPULSE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY. > MODIFIED 12Z DVN/ILX RAOBS SUGGEST THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS WILL > BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN A PLUME OF > MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. 0-3 KM SHEAR IS ROBUST PER > DVN/ARX VWP DATA...BREEDING CONCERN FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. A FEW > SUPERCELLS MAY FORM WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING > ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. HOWEVER...GIVEN > THE LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL DEEP-LAYER DIRECTIONAL/SPEED > SHEAR...CONVECTION MAY TEND TO FORM INTO CLUSTERS WITH THE PRIMARY > RISK BECOMING DAMAGING WIND. > > ..GRAMS/MEAD.. 05/30/2013 > > ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... > > ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX... > > LAT...LON 43139219 43779220 44409190 44949131 45159064 45008982 > 44688913 43998906 42438948 42188986 42099059 42199171 > 43139219 > > Read more > > > > To change your subscriptions or preferences log in to your Subscriber > Preferences Page with your e-mail address. > > Delete profile > > For questions or problems with the subscription service, please contact > support@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx. > > > The use of the logo does not imply an endorsement by the NOAA/NWS > > GovDelivery provides this service using unaltered NOAA/NWS products. · > 1-800-439-1420