[spotters-illianaskywarn] Fwd: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
- From: Keith Reedy <keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Thu, 30 May 2013 12:48:12 -0400
Keith Reedy
keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
Begin forwarded message:
> From: GovDelivery Weather Updates <weatherupdates@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
> Date: May 30, 2013 12:36:57 PM EDT
> To: keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> Reply-To: weatherupdates@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
> You are subscribed to SPC Mesoscale Discussion for NOAA's National Weather
> Service.
> GovDelivery provides this service using unaltered NOAA/NWS products.
>
>
> SPC MD 876
> 05/30/2013 12:30 PM EDT
>
> MD 0876 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR ERN MO...IL...SERN IA
>
>
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0876
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 1129 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013
>
> AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO...IL...SERN IA
>
> CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
>
> VALID 301629Z - 301730Z
>
> PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
>
> SUMMARY...SCATTERED TSTMS FORMING ACROSS SERN MO WILL LIKELY
> COALESCE INTO N/NEWD MOVING ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS THIS
> AFTERNOON. PRIMARY RISK SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT ISOLATED
> SEVERE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WW WILL BE
> COORDINATED SHORTLY.
>
> DISCUSSION...AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES DOWNSTREAM OF THE
> AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SEVERE THREAT WILL
> CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. VEER-BACK-VEER WIND
> PROFILES AND THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD FOSTER
> CONVECTION FORMING INTO CLUSTERS/SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS.
> STILL...MODERATE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED
> SUPERCELLS.
>
> ..GRAMS/MEAD.. 05/30/2013
>
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
>
> ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...
>
> LAT...LON 41449170 41829016 41608881 41068843 38758866 37018974
> 36649089 36759138 39379178 41449170
>
> Read more
> SPC MD 875
> 05/30/2013 12:21 PM EDT
>
> MD 0875 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NERN IA...CNTRL/SRN
> WI...FAR SERN MN
>
>
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0875
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 1120 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013
>
> AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA...CNTRL/SRN WI...FAR SERN MN
>
> CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
>
> VALID 301620Z - 301815Z
>
> PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
>
> SUMMARY...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
> THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND SHOULD DEEPEN INTO TSTMS SHORTLY.
> COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING DESTABILIZATION AMIDST STRONG LOW-LEVEL
> SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS WITH ALL
> HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
>
> DISCUSSION...AS MLCIN HAS BECOME MINIMIZED...SCATTERED CONVECTION
> HAS FORMED ACROSS NERN IA INTO FAR SWRN WI DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORTWAVE
> IMPULSE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY.
> MODIFIED 12Z DVN/ILX RAOBS SUGGEST THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS WILL
> BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN A PLUME OF
> MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. 0-3 KM SHEAR IS ROBUST PER
> DVN/ARX VWP DATA...BREEDING CONCERN FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. A FEW
> SUPERCELLS MAY FORM WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
> ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. HOWEVER...GIVEN
> THE LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL DEEP-LAYER DIRECTIONAL/SPEED
> SHEAR...CONVECTION MAY TEND TO FORM INTO CLUSTERS WITH THE PRIMARY
> RISK BECOMING DAMAGING WIND.
>
> ..GRAMS/MEAD.. 05/30/2013
>
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
>
> ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...
>
> LAT...LON 43139219 43779220 44409190 44949131 45159064 45008982
> 44688913 43998906 42438948 42188986 42099059 42199171
> 43139219
>
> Read more
>
>
>
> To change your subscriptions or preferences log in to your Subscriber
> Preferences Page with your e-mail address.
>
> Delete profile
>
> For questions or problems with the subscription service, please contact
> support@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx.
>
>
> The use of the logo does not imply an endorsement by the NOAA/NWS
>
> GovDelivery provides this service using unaltered NOAA/NWS products. ·
> 1-800-439-1420
Other related posts:
