[AR] Re: Rocket Labs

  • From: Bill Claybaugh <wclaybaugh2@xxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: "arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Wed, 16 Sep 2015 21:39:28 -0400



Sent from my Commodore 64

On Sep 16, 2015, at 8:40 PM, Peter Fairbrother <zenadsl6186@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

On 17/09/15 00:44, Bill Claybaugh wrote:
Why assume evil when nature is a sufficient explanation?

There was no prior assumption of evil on my part - and if you are correct, no
there is no evil. The market price has been manipulated by no-profit pricing.


Airlines are both commodity businesses--they have no pricing
power--and service businesses--they have inherently high costs--so
they naturally, through competition, fall to no profit pricing.

Long-term, no-profit pricing is a chimera in a free market.

Agreed.


Any no-profit pricing enterprise must eventually fail in a free market (tiny
disturbances magnify). Over time, no-profit enterprises would not exist
without external support, given for some other reason than the strictly
financial - national pride, or whatever.

Agreed. Most airlines are owned by governments that cover the inevitable
losses--which losses are inevitably magnified by the inefficiency associated
with government ownership....

However--in the U.S.--the bankruptcy system allows some airlines to blow off
their debts every few decades even as others are liquidated.

And--in one known example only--if one does absolutely everything correctly and
makes no errors at all; then it is possible to eek out a very small but
consistent profit in the airline industry. It thus seems possible that the same
might eventually be true in space transportation, but then why would a profit
seeking investor but money into that business instead of biotech or AI?



Space transportation is no different.

Here I must disagree a little. As both commodity brokers and manufacturers,
people like SpaceX do have pricing power.

Ok, in rocketry we are still in, or perhaps coming towards the end of, the
era of national manufacturers/carriers; so the pricing power of eg SpaceX is
limited - but.


Actually, in aviation we are still in the era of national manufacturers too
- there are two contenders, Boeing and Airbus, both of which are "too
big/important to fail".


So what's your point?

Bill


-- Peter Fairbrother


Bill

Sent from my Commodore 64

On Sep 16, 2015, at 7:15 PM, Peter Fairbrother
<zenadsl6186@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

On 16/09/15 23:49, Bill Claybaugh wrote: Sorry, Pierce, but your
point is simply wrong.

Airlines--and space launchers--have no profits because it is an
inherently no profit business.

Why is that? Airlines provide a service which people are willing to
pay a market rate for.

If they make no profit, then the market rate has been manipulated.
How?




Or is it just another urban legend that airlines make no profit?

Why do people continue to finance them?


Sounds like an urban legend to me, but what do I kno?


-- Peter Fairbrother


That has nothing to do with the cost of
the hardware.

When the per flight cost of the hardware drops to near zero--as
is the case in the airline business--the flights will stay prove
to generate no profit.



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