[lit-ideas] Re: So, you think teachers have problems

  • From: Phil Enns <phil.enns@xxxxxxxxx>
  • To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2010 10:39:51 +0700

I had written:

"Just on a quick glance, but doesn't the trending of confidence in
institutions track economic conditions?  The better the economic
conditions, the more confidence people have.  The worse the economic
conditions, such as the current unpleasantness, the less confidence
people have.  I wouldn't read this poll as providing any information
about people's understanding of institutions."

Perhaps I should say a bit more.  I have recently been interested in
an ongoing debate among political scientists regarding the role of
politics (i.e. policies, speeches, legislation, etc) in elections.
The general consensus, from what I can tell, is that these things
contribute only a few percentage points to how people vote.  For
example, if the economy is strong, virtually nothing will stop an
incumbent president from being re-elected.  If the economy is weak,
the incumbent will be in trouble.

Here is a quote from an academic article on the issue:

"The clearest and most significant implication of aggregate election
analyses is that objective economic conditions -- not clever
television ads, debate performances, or the other ephemera of
day-to-day campaigning -- are the single most important influence upon
an incumbent president's prospects for reelection." ("Econometrics and
Presidential Elections", Bartels
http://www.princeton.edu/~bartels/econpres.pdf)

More popular discussions of the issue can be found at:

Ezra Klein - 
http://www.newsweek.com/2010/07/10/it-s-always-the-economy-stupid.html
Jonathan Bernstein -
http://plainblogaboutpolitics.blogspot.com/2010/07/economy-elections-and-political-science.html

I wonder how closely the polling data on confidence in Congress from
1973 to the present tracks the state of the economy?  Without looking
at the specific details, it seems that confidence in Congress
generally drops when the economy is poor and rises when the economy
picks up.

This issue interests me because I wonder what the role of beliefs and
reasons play in democratic practices.  If elections are determined
largely by how much money people have in their pockets, then what
becomes of public debate and discussion of issues?


Sincerely,

Phil Enns
Indonesia
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