[lit-ideas] Re: So, you think teachers have problems

  • From: Judith Evans <judithevans001@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2010 21:25:47 +0000 (GMT)

> The general consensus, from what I can tell, is that these
> things
> contribute only a few percentage points to how people
> vote.  For
> example, if the economy is strong, virtually nothing will
> stop an
> incumbent president from being re-elected.  If the
> economy is weak,
> the incumbent will be in trouble.

(unless the incumbent manages to start a war' discover an Enemy...) yes. 
Ceteris paribus, that is. The Jonathan Bernstein blog post rightly lists other 
factors.  

It isn't that 
 
> politics (i.e. policies, speeches, legislation, etc


(etc. including campaigns) have so small an effect that we should ignore them.  
Here last time there were grave concerns about the BNP. In the event they was 
well-nigh obliterated, in an election where the state of the economy favoured 
them and there was widespread disgust with 'politics' and the major parties, by 
local campaigns.  In their strongest seat, Barking, a traditionally working 
class constituency 'adversely affected by immigration', they were trounced, 
losing all their local council seats too, and Labour romped home increasing 
their majority.  But though BNP performance nationally were poor, Labour would 
probably have lost Barking, and perhaps to them, without a tireless anti-BNP 
campaign of information, discussion, and explanation. 

And there are numerous such examples.

So, it isn't that "public debate and discussion of issues" and "beliefs and 
reasons" play no part, or even that they always play a minor part, but that the 
odds are against their playing the part one might wish, at least if we're 
concerned with presidential elections, or general elections here, or in any 
large polity, at least, I am tempted to add, when, basically, only two parties 
are involved. That doesn't mean they are unimportant. 

 
still, all this does not make me happy!

Judy Evans, Cardiff

--- On Sun, 15/8/10, Phil Enns <phil.enns@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

> From: Phil Enns <phil.enns@xxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: [lit-ideas] Re: So, you think teachers have problems
> To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Date: Sunday, 15 August, 2010, 4:39
> I had written:
> 
> "Just on a quick glance, but doesn't the trending of
> confidence in
> institutions track economic conditions?  The better the
> economic
> conditions, the more confidence people have.  The worse
> the economic
> conditions, such as the current unpleasantness, the less
> confidence
> people have.  I wouldn't read this poll as providing any
> information
> about people's understanding of institutions."
> 
> Perhaps I should say a bit more.  I have recently been
> interested in
> an ongoing debate among political scientists regarding the
> role of
> politics (i.e. policies, speeches, legislation, etc) in
> elections.
> The general consensus, from what I can tell, is that these
> things
> contribute only a few percentage points to how people
> vote.  For
> example, if the economy is strong, virtually nothing will
> stop an
> incumbent president from being re-elected.  If the
> economy is weak,
> the incumbent will be in trouble.
> 
> Here is a quote from an academic article on the issue:
> 
> "The clearest and most significant implication of aggregate
> election
> analyses is that objective economic conditions -- not
> clever
> television ads, debate performances, or the other ephemera
> of
> day-to-day campaigning -- are the single most important
> influence upon
> an incumbent president's prospects for reelection."
> ("Econometrics and
> Presidential Elections", Bartels
> http://www.princeton.edu/~bartels/econpres.pdf)
> 
> More popular discussions of the issue can be found at:
> 
> Ezra Klein - 
> http://www.newsweek.com/2010/07/10/it-s-always-the-economy-stupid.html
> Jonathan Bernstein -
> http://plainblogaboutpolitics.blogspot.com/2010/07/economy-elections-and-political-science.html
> 
> I wonder how closely the polling data on confidence in
> Congress from
> 1973 to the present tracks the state of the economy? 
> Without looking
> at the specific details, it seems that confidence in
> Congress
> generally drops when the economy is poor and rises when the
> economy
> picks up.
> 
> This issue interests me because I wonder what the role of
> beliefs and
> reasons play in democratic practices.  If elections
> are determined
> largely by how much money people have in their pockets,
> then what
> becomes of public debate and discussion of issues?
> 
> 
> Sincerely,
> 
> Phil Enns
> Indonesia
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