[LRflex] Re: The DMR as a Collectible.
- From: "Tim Bedsted" <Tim.Bedsted@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: <leicareflex@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Fri, 9 Feb 2007 07:31:02 +0100
Andy,
You are spot on, the "only" reason to buy a R9 is to mate it to the DMR, =
so with the DMR gone, they will have a camera series with "zero" sales =
for 2 years. The logical conclusion must be a) they are in the process =
of discarding the R series, in order to focus entirely on the M line 2) =
or the R10 is much closer to launch than we think
Remember the hemorrhaging of the R-series before the DMR came along and =
gave the old R-series camera owners an upgrade path into the digital =
realm?
/T
Tim Bedsted
Senior Principal Consultant, Ph.D
Risk Intelligence
T: +45 70282857, M: +45 27212857
E: Tim.Bedsted@xxxxxxxxxxx
SAS Institute A/S=20
Koebmagergade 7-9=20
DK - 1150 Copenhagen K
www.sas.com/dk=20
T: +45 70282870, F: +45 70282991
SAS... The Power to Know
=20
-----Original Message-----
From: leicareflex-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx =
[mailto:leicareflex-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of Andy Wagner
Sent: 9. februar 2007 05:14
To: leicareflex@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [LRflex] Re: The DMR as a Collectible.
Guy's=20
One thing that really has me courious is Leica's reputation for =
backing their products. Up until just a few years ago you could send any =
camera into Leica and get it repaired. They just recently stoped =
repairing SCM if I recall. Even if the DMR is dead how long will Leica =
back it? Furthermore as they build their inhouse programing dept. might =
we not see a ver. 1.3 anyways esp if the R10 is 20 months out.
Something here doesn't sit quite right from a marketing standpoint. If =
all this is true,Leica will not have an R or digital Reflex product for =
20+ months. No DMR would kill any R9 sales. Film ves digi arguments can =
be what they are, but the fact is, film camera sales are pretty much =
dead. What doesn't add up here?
At 08/02/2007, you wrote:
>Guys
>
>I have other thought. =3D20
>Barbie dolls are collectible, it is true as it is easy to maintain and =
=3D
>I
>saw a 100 years old teddy bear and it is still in good condition. But =
=3D
>the
>question for DMR is, how long it can last? Those electronics items are =
=3D
>not
>predictable, I have a TV works fine for 4 years and dead one day =3D
>suddenly,
>and few other electronics appliances were not working suddenly. No sure =
=3D
>for
>Dlsr and DMRs, but I guess five years is maximum already. for such =
short
>life cycle, it should be a consumable item, the one way to maximize the
>value is : use it, use it and use it. So the average click cost will be
>lower, may be 10 cent one click^_^
>
>Best Regards=3D20
>tt =3D20
Hi TT!
Not sure I agree with you on the 5 year life of the DMR. It's true,=20
that in terms of obsolescence, it may be 5 years and then things will=20
be so much better than we will all want to dump our DMRs. But, in=20
terms of actual, useable life ... I suspect more like 20 years.
I spent 30 years in retail electronics, and the general rule went=20
like this. If it (whatever electronic device it is) survives 30=20
days, it will most likely make a year, without failure. If it makes=20
a year, chances are better than 90% that it will make 12 to 15 years=20
without a failure.
To have a TV fail in 4 years is most unusual, though it does=20
happen. Even so, you could have had it repaired and obtained another=20
10 to 15 years out of it, most likely without further problems. Just=20
because something fails does not mean it is disposable.
The nature of electronics is such that if a part is going to fail, it=20
will nearly always do so in the first 30 days. I used this knowledge=20
to my advantage. From 1974 until I closed my shop in 1998, I offered=20
a 7 year written guarantee on every piece of stereo equipment I sold,=20
without charge. How could I do this? By padding the price to cover=20
the repair costs? No.
I could do this because 90% of all failures, that occur in the first=20
10 years, occur in the first 30 days. Of the last 10% of the=20
failures, 90% of them occur before the end of the fist year. So, I=20
am left with just 1% of the failures to pay for, after the first=20
year. Since all products have a minimum of a 1 year warranty, 99% of=20
all failures were covered by the maker, not me!
Because of this (and the fact that many brands had warranties longer=20
than 1 year) my costs to pay for a 7 year guarantee, on $1,000,000=20
per annum of merchandise was usually less than $300!
Since DMR's are essentially electronic devices, if they are not=20
abused, and survive the first year, there is not reason that they=20
should not go 12 to 15 years (or more) without failure.
So, if you can live with 10 megapixels.....
---
David Young,
Logan Lake, CANADA
Wildlife Photographs: http://www.telyt.com/
Personal Web-pages: http://www3.telus.net/~telyt
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Regards
YXAndy
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