Re: [CPT-FGC] Re: Hi
- From: Ryan Williams <ryan820509@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: cpt-fgc@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Mon, 3 Feb 2014 16:27:04 +0200
Whaaaat? Damn bro, don't let the Telkom scrubs get to you.
On Mon, Feb 3, 2014 at 4:10 PM, Sean Carrington <theseancarrington@xxxxxxxxx
> wrote:
> I think I'm troubled.
>
> I might have cursed one too many times at the GM of Telkom Claremont.
> I was escorted out of the mall by security... *facepalm*.
> On 03 Feb 2014 4:02 PM, "G B" <sigma.g19@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>
>> "subjective prices" - I mean that they are priced subjectively... See
>> DeBont and Thaler (1985)'s classic overreaction hypothesis, or google
>> anything on herding, as a basic yet 'oh so' applicable example.
>>
>>
>> On Mon, Feb 3, 2014 at 3:52 PM, G B <sigma.g19@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>>
>>> Never heard of Peter Stone. Can you send me the title of the article or
>>> the pdf? I'd love to read it.
>>>
>>> The reason why its frequently mentioned/used within the Hedge Fund
>>> industry is due to how rapidly HFs change, as can be seen in the quant
>>> meltdown of 2007 (In three days, you could've made R1 turn into R500, if
>>> you were at the right place at the right time). Testing for adaption here
>>> is extremely interesting, and saves you years of work. HFs is also the
>>> canary in the coal mine in world of finance.
>>>
>>> You are spot on with the over-fitting issue. :-) I corrected this when I
>>> implemented mine. When using fundamental analysis, they'd implement like,
>>> 15 different fundamental metrics, of which maybe 4 or 5 have any statical
>>> significance. In fact, certain researchers went to the extent of running a
>>> GA to select the variables for "best-fit" first... which is akin to
>>> data-mining in the sense that they are finding the best variables that fit
>>> with the given data BEFORE running the algorithm.
>>>
>>> And yes, the evolutionary algorithm is trained using a data-base first,
>>> before it goes live. Typically, the GA selects the variables and the ANN is
>>> what does all the decision making. Having the computer decide what it
>>> should do for both is unwise, or at least, I think so.
>>>
>>> Like I said, you put garbage in, you going to get garbage out, that is
>>> how it works with these black box machines, so yeah, people have used GA's
>>> before, but like we both mentioned, how you program it and I would is
>>> totally different, which means it would learn differently, just as we do.
>>>
>>> You also mentioned "Buy-Low/Sell-High" when there are economic shocks,
>>> which is a great strategy, sure, but stock prices will adjust accordingly
>>> anyway, so while they may be cheaper than usual, they won't necessarily be
>>> mispriced, which is what I'm interested in. I can't always wait for some
>>> kind of external economic movement to make money.
>>>
>>> As you've said, I don't want to match the market at all, else I'd go
>>> passive. Stocks are priced at the value that the market values it at and
>>> those are often subjective prices, more often than not.If I had a basic
>>> program to initiate buy/sell commands based on whether a stock falls
>>> below/above a certain price and expect it to earn money, I'd be a
>>> billionaire by now.
>>>
>>>
>>> On Mon, Feb 3, 2014 at 2:29 PM, Ilitirit Sama <ilitirit@xxxxxxxxx>wrote:
>>>
>>>> @GB
>>>>
>>>> I did some reading up on using GA against the stock market. It seems
>>>> some Hedge Funds use them already, but most of these funds are already
>>>> defunct (probably not because of the use of GAs though). Was that paper
>>>> you mentioned by Peter Stone? It answers a lot of the questions I had. It
>>>> seems the evolution of the ANN happens way before the data is run on live
>>>> data. Stock Market GAs also tend to suffer from "over-fitting", which is
>>>> something I also mentioned. They try to adjust to past performance in
>>>> order to generate an expected result. However, most GAs don't take into
>>>> account random fluctuations in the result, so they fail miserably when they
>>>> try to derive patterns from the data. The best they can do is to try to
>>>> match the curve, which of course is very bad.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Mon, Feb 3, 2014 at 2:19 PM, Ilitirit Sama <ilitirit@xxxxxxxxx>wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> He needs to confirm the subscription. The link should be at the
>>>>> bottom of any of the admins' messages. Give me his email address.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Mon, Feb 3, 2014 at 2:03 PM, lindsey kiviets <lindseyak@xxxxxxxxxxx
>>>>> > wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> lol,
>>>>>>
>>>>>> @ilitrit , gimme th fgc link again please.i added Hilton myself , and
>>>>>> it seems he is not added to the mails.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> ------------------------------
>>>>>> Date: Mon, 3 Feb 2014 13:59:14 +0200
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Subject: Re: [CPT-FGC] Re: Hi
>>>>>> From: ryan820509@xxxxxxxxx
>>>>>> To: cpt-fgc@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> *lol* Guys will just have to put their cellphones where I can see em,
>>>>>> or else :P Scumbaggery at it's finest :P
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I'm busy editing the vids. Will start uploading soon :)
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On Mon, Feb 3, 2014 at 1:55 PM, Ashraf Barendse <
>>>>>> ashraf.barendse@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>> The first rule of Random FG club is...
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Gohan is a charge character. I know this because LB knows this.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> =========================================================================
>>>>>> You are subscribed to the Cape Town Fighting Game Community mailing
>>>>>> list.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> //www.freelists.org/list/cpt-fgc
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>
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