Re: [CPT-FGC] Re: Hi

  • From: G B <sigma.g19@xxxxxxxxx>
  • To: cpt-fgc@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Mon, 3 Feb 2014 15:52:24 +0200

Never heard of Peter Stone. Can you send me the title of the article or the
pdf? I'd love to read it.

The reason why its frequently mentioned/used within the Hedge Fund industry
is due to how rapidly HFs change, as can be seen in the quant meltdown of
2007 (In three days, you could've made R1 turn into R500, if you were at
the right place at the right time). Testing for adaption here is extremely
interesting, and saves you years of work. HFs is also the canary in the
coal mine in world of finance.

You are spot on with the over-fitting issue. :-) I corrected this when I
implemented mine. When using fundamental analysis, they'd implement like,
15 different fundamental metrics, of which maybe 4 or 5 have any statical
significance. In fact, certain researchers went to the extent of running a
GA to select the variables for "best-fit" first... which is akin to
data-mining in the sense that they are finding the best variables that fit
with the given data BEFORE running the algorithm.

And yes, the evolutionary algorithm is trained using a data-base first,
before it goes live. Typically, the GA selects the variables and the ANN is
what does all the decision making. Having the computer decide what it
should do for both is unwise, or at least, I think so.

Like I said, you put garbage in, you going to get garbage out, that is how
it works with these black box machines, so yeah, people have used GA's
before, but like we both mentioned, how you program it and I would is
totally different, which means it would learn differently, just as we do.

You also mentioned "Buy-Low/Sell-High" when there are economic shocks,
which is a great strategy, sure, but stock prices will adjust accordingly
anyway, so while they may be cheaper than usual, they won't necessarily be
mispriced, which is what I'm interested in. I can't always wait for some
kind of external economic movement to make money.

  As you've said, I don't want to match the market at all, else I'd go
passive. Stocks are priced at the value that the market values it at and
those are often subjective prices, more often than not.If I had a basic
program to initiate buy/sell commands based on whether a stock falls
below/above a certain price and expect it to earn money, I'd be a
billionaire by now.

On Mon, Feb 3, 2014 at 2:29 PM, Ilitirit Sama <ilitirit@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

> @GB
> I did some reading up on using GA against the stock market.  It seems some
> Hedge Funds use them already, but most of these funds are already defunct
> (probably not because of the use of GAs though).  Was that paper you
> mentioned by Peter Stone?  It answers a lot of the questions I had.  It
> seems the evolution of the ANN happens way before the data is run on live
> data.  Stock Market GAs also tend to suffer from "over-fitting", which is
> something I also mentioned.  They try to adjust to past performance in
> order to generate an expected result.  However, most GAs don't take into
> account random fluctuations in the result, so they fail miserably when they
> try to derive patterns from the data.  The best they can do is to try to
> match the curve, which of course is very bad.
> On Mon, Feb 3, 2014 at 2:19 PM, Ilitirit Sama <ilitirit@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>> He needs to confirm the subscription.  The link should be at the bottom
>> of any of the admins' messages.  Give me his email address.
>> On Mon, Feb 3, 2014 at 2:03 PM, lindsey kiviets <lindseyak@xxxxxxxxxxx>wrote:
>>> lol,
>>> @ilitrit , gimme th fgc link again please.i added Hilton myself , and it
>>> seems he is not added to the mails.
>>> ------------------------------
>>> Date: Mon, 3 Feb 2014 13:59:14 +0200
>>> Subject: Re: [CPT-FGC] Re: Hi
>>> From: ryan820509@xxxxxxxxx
>>> To: cpt-fgc@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>> *lol* Guys will just have to put their cellphones where I can see em, or
>>> else :P Scumbaggery at it's finest :P
>>> I'm busy editing the vids. Will start uploading soon :)
>>> On Mon, Feb 3, 2014 at 1:55 PM, Ashraf Barendse <
>>> ashraf.barendse@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>>> The first rule of Random FG club is...
>>> Gohan is a charge character. I know this because LB knows this.
>>> =========================================================================
>>> You are subscribed to the Cape Town Fighting Game Community mailing list.
>>> //

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