[wkars-members] Re: RSGB DRM UPDATE

  • From: Mark Kent <mark.antony.kent@xxxxxxxxx>
  • To: wkars-members@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Thu, 5 Nov 2015 17:15:38 +0000

The West Kent nets are advertised every week, and M6s are always welcomed. Why
don’t you join one of them? The invitations are sent every week onto the
-announce list, so you should see them; this, at least, is something where M6s
are always invited.

I cannot speak for all licensed amateurs, but I have never heard any on-air
abuse on these nets.

In case you don’t have the details to hand, the target is 145.375 MHz, FM,
centre of gravity is Tunbridge Wells area, time is 2000hrs local time (so GMT
at the moment), and the day is Mondays, when it’s not a club night, and lasts
usually 1-2 hours depending on who is about.

73 Mark G8PHM


On 5 Nov 2015, at 15:34, gladius650@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx (Redacted sender
"gladius650" for DMARC) <dmarc-noreply@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

As M6's we are inclined to look into things in great detail to prove our
worth to more experienced users, not necessarily the theory but the more
practical side of things, only to get put down because a-c=d doesn't equate
when we ask questions. Therefore I will only ask one person now that will
listen to both sides.
There is also a great deal of snobbery amoung full license operators, while
in seperate discussion groups we are never asked to join any group, just left
on the side line to twiddle our fingers, so we leave.
Because we feel honoured to hold a call sign, we tend to keep up what we are
taught at the time as announcing our call signs, then we are accused of
wasting time or even called proofs, pancies, tarts even down to making
comments that we must be child molesters, the excuse they must have been
drunk, doesn't wash with me.

Sent from my HTC

----- Reply message -----
From: "Mark Kent" <mark.antony.kent@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <wkars-members@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [wkars-members] Re: RSGB DRM UPDATE
Date: Thu, Nov 5, 2015 1:50 PM

Do you have a particular area you’d like to see improved? Or particular
examples where you think things might have been handled better?

Where there’s something specific to go on, it’s often easier to make some
kind of progress, and often, people don’t realise that they’re getting
something wrong, so a light hint can work wonders :-)
73 Mark G8PHM

On 5 Nov 2015, at 12:26, gladius650@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<mailto:gladius650@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> (Redacted sender "gladius650" for DMARC)
<dmarc-noreply@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:dmarc-noreply@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>> wrote:

Until the RSGP/OFCOM suppresses the arrogance towards new operators the
ingress to our hobby will remain static. Involving new operators into
conversations, and listening to their input will go a long way to
encouragement. May I add a little light joviality also.
M6LVK

Sent from my HTC

----- Reply message -----
From: "Mark Kent" <mark.antony.kent@xxxxxxxxx
<mailto:mark.antony.kent@xxxxxxxxx>>
To: <wkars-members@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:wkars-members@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
Subject: [wkars-members] Re: RSGB DRM UPDATE
Date: Thu, Nov 5, 2015 11:40 AM

[ I’ve re-attached my email so that the thread is not broken ] Comments are
inline:

Mark
That's a fascinating and telling analysis, and some of your conclusions are
pretty powerful. Thank you very much for sharing them. A couple of
thoughts:

1. The film Convoy was a huge boost because it showed CB radio as the
hero, a point reinforced by its use to thwart overweening authority. The
illegitimacy of CB here was a huge draw. I was at the Home Office during
CB's heyday, and handled all the public communication for radio regulation
at the time - and when we brought in MPT 1321 and legalised CB, six
magazines and a great number of equipment suppliers went out of business
almost overnight. Never underestimate the power of romantic unlawfulness.
Conclusion: we'll probably always be able to attract technophiles, but if
we want real growth, we need to be able to sell fun in the broad
philosophical sense you suggest. Raynet type activities, demonstrating a
public good and fun to boot, are an obvious candidate.

Robin Hood was, eventually I believe, forgiven by the incoming regime!
Pirate radio, like computer hacking, continue to appeal to the ‘romantic
unlawfulness’ genetic drive which many young chaps seem to have. Part of
this, I think, is the perception of adventure falling outside of normal
experience, with the opportunity to act beyond accepted norms. Once upon a
time, the armed services, bizarrely perhaps, offered something of the
‘Horatio Hornblower’ appeal [ see the original Star Trek series for that in
a more modernistic setting] , or indeed Blake’s 7 was described as ‘Robin
Hood in space’.

So as you say, how do we loop Horatio Hornblower and Robin Hood into
Raynet..?



2. As an Whitehall hand, I think the RSGB has pitiful influence with Ofcom.
We lost the moral standing that comes with a licence fee. We clearly deal
with people low in the Ofcom food chain, when the real decisions are made
by the policy makers and legal people. The paucity of our reach and
importance is well illustrated by that new guidance document with its poor
drafting, non-sequiturs (see 2.79-2.82 for example) and dreadful proof
reading.

Yes, big mistake. I wonder if we should do something rather odd, that being
to campaign for the re-introduction of a licence fee in return for some
support? That’s something the RSGB could push or it could be done
independently.


3. The RSGB is an organisation bonded by a website and magazine, but riven
by different competing and often arrogant interests. It has dozens of very
good people all ploughing the field in different directions. It reminds
me a great deal of policing - the upper tiers dominated by people who live
off the experiences of their long-lost younger days. (Hence my bleat for
more kids, ASAP.). As a consequence, it lacks any of the focus necessary to
campaign for the hobby. Raynet has a variant of the disease.


I get the point, but I think fixing the leadership by adding new recruits
will have a very long time-constant, probable several decades, so it needs
other, more immediate action, going into the mix as well, in my view.






4. We need to sell amateur radio as an enabler, and a strategic good, not
just an end in itself. But that's where we both agree. And we have to
find better champions and partners than Ofcom. It's a regulator, and an
auctioneer, and we are a pimple on the hindquarters of an elephant with no
effect on its head or direction at all.

This is worth some further thought.
73 Mike



Indeed. I’ve come around, by the way, to what the RSGB is perhaps trying to
achieve with the film. I’m still not convinced it’ll work, but that’s a
different question.

More immediately:

Answer the question "What is the RSGB for?" At the base level, it is a
social club, but that also has some of the responsibilities of a labour
union, or a professional association. The latter parts are about
representing the interests of its members.

Simple enough, but a much harder question is “What should the RSGB do?”
Clearly promotion of Amateur Radio is almost a given, as without that, the
RSGB ceases to exist. But it goes much further, out to properly engaging
with licensing authorities, and ensuring that it is the proper voice of its
membership. Recently, it seems to have allowed itself to be pushed out of
the way - this is clearly wrong and needs be fixed.

There is a very basic question, though, which is should Ofcom be responsible
for spectrum auctions at all? This is surely poacher turned gamekeeper;
the RSGB should be raising this question into MPs and parliament, probably
on the back of the educational value of amateur radio in promoting UK PLC’s
future in science and technology, something everyone agrees the need for.

The responsibility for spectrum licensing should be taken from Ofcom, or
the responsibility for licensing radio usage, interference and such like
should be given to a separate body. That body should be charged with
protecting the interests of the UK’s scientific future through defending
essential educational spectrum from short-term commercial exploitation.

Secondly, RSGB and Raynet both should be looking at the Horatio Hornblower
side; but that means a whole different approach, and must be done *without*
losing appeal to the traditional, self-selecting groups (universities,
schools, technicians, engineers, et cetera).

I wonder if the RSGB might considering getting together with its CEPT
country counterparts and see about funding some Scientific Arts as per my
previous note. There are countless examples of radio amateurs providing
unusual emergency comms, including the Falklands, the recent Tsunamis, and
of course the activities of Raynet. There’re also the satellites, the
FunCube thing, the space station. How about a story which weaves all of
this together?

Maybe I should try to write one :-)


================ <my previous note below> ===============





Mike et al, time for some analysis…

Facebook and social media
======================
Facebook’s biggest growth area is, and has been for some time, in older
people (> 34), so its quite likely that radio amateurs are going there.
It’s losing popularity amongst the youngsters, though.

For facebook: http://www.slideshare.net/oreillymedia/facebook-demo-20090415
<http://www.slideshare.net/oreillymedia/facebook-demo-20090415> in 2009:

The UK had 18 million active users. The majority of users were 18-34,
majority growth for Europe was in the 45 to 65 year age range, but also had
a peak from 13-17, with most users being female. That is about 1 in 3
people.

Japan had 3.3 million active users. Asian user profile was similar to
Europe, except majority users male. That was about 1 in 50 people.

The US had 59.6 million active users. Americas user profile was similar to
Europe, majority of users female. That was about 1 in 5 people.

Facebook users are rapidly ‘getting older’, though, in 2014 :
http://investorplace.com/2014/02/facebook-users-demographics/#.Vjrc06IrNsM
<http://investorplace.com/2014/02/facebook-users-demographics/#.Vjrc06IrNsM>
US users are up to 180 million, threefold since 2009 report above, and now
approx. 1 in 2 people in the US. The biggest growth group is 55+ so that
would align with Radio Amateur populations, with biggest active group 35-54
and the biggest fall in 18-24 years old.

It seems just as likely that Japanese people use alternative social media,
for example.
http://www.socialmediatoday.com/content/social-media-fast-facts-japan
<http://www.socialmediatoday.com/content/social-media-fast-facts-japan>
suggests that the Japanese far prefer Twitter, and number an astonishing 9%
of global users, but also that Facebook users have grown by 300% in the last
3 years to 17 million, rather more than the 3.3 million reported by
O’Reilly, above. Also see
https://takeme2japan.wordpress.com/2009/02/12/social-media-in-japan/
<https://takeme2japan.wordpress.com/2009/02/12/social-media-in-japan/> which
shows just how rapidly the trends move. In 2009, most Japanese were using
Mixi, but Facebook has rocketed since.

Radio Amateur numbers across the world
====================================
The numbers are interesting… according to
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amateur_radio_operator
<http://www.dxzone.com/cgi-bin/dir/jump2.cgi?ID=13864>, (see also IARU
figures at http://www.dxzone.com/cgi-bin/dir/jump2.cgi?ID=13864
<http://www.dxzone.com/cgi-bin/dir/jump2.cgi?ID=13864>,
http://www.n0hr.com/ham_radio_population.htm
<http://www.n0hr.com/ham_radio_population.htm>) we have

1,296,059 licensed amateurs in 1999 in Japan, which is 1.012% of the
population.

738,497 licensed amateurs in 2012 in the US, which is 0.239% of the
population. 15% of them are said to be female.

(Thailand, Korea, Germany, Taipei, Spain, then)...

58,426 licensed amateurs in 2000 in the UK, which is 0.094% of the
population. 8th largest in the world for licensed amateurs, or 11th largest
by %age of population (see the table below).
Also note 81,000 licences allocated according to this:
http://www.essexham.co.uk/news/ofcom-amateur-radio-licence-review.html
<http://www.essexham.co.uk/news/ofcom-amateur-radio-licence-review.html>

Global numbers
---------------------
According to the IARU figures, the number of licensed amateurs globally has
grown from
399,000 in 1965 to
2,789,720 in 2000
over that period, showing growth each year. I don’t know what’s happened
since, and 15 years is a long time, so perhaps it’s now going the other way.

From the %age table well below, though, you can see that the UK is actually
reasonably well placed in Europe, in fact 5th.

The undisputed world champ, though, either way, is Japan. Hence I’d be
wondering why Japan is so amazingly far ahead of anywhere else in all
measures.

UK RAE pass figures, 1946 to 2003
============================

Historical view of UK RAE, 1946 to 2003:
http://www.g4dmp.co.uk/rae/raestats.pdf:
<http://www.g4dmp.co.uk/rae/raestats.pdf:>

1946: 395 RAE passes (ex-military folk?)
1959: 1102 RAE passes (first year above 1000 - ex mil?)
1982: 8000 RAE passes (highest ever - post-CB boom)
1991: 3000 RAE passes (sight peak when Novice RAE introduced )
1997: 980 RAE passes (first year below 1000 since 1959)
2003: 652 RAE passes.

After that, the RSGB began to run the RAE, and figures seem quite hard to
find! So, does anyone know what the RAE pass figures are since 2003? I
cannot find them.


RSGB membership
================
This is interesting:http://www.rsgbcc.org/hf/minutes/March2014.pdf
<http://www.rsgbcc.org/hf/minutes/March2014.pdf> suggests 1993 membership at
30,000 and 2013 membership at 21,500, which does show that the RSGB is,
perhaps, in trouble, but this might be more representative of the post CB
boom that anything else.


What caused the 1980s Amateur Radio boom?
====================================
The biggest ever injection of Radio Amateur Examination passes was, it
seems, from the ex-CB fraternity in the 1980s. This rather suggests that
making a film like Convoy - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sd5ZLJWQmss
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sd5ZLJWQmss> might be the best possible
thing you could do. A large part of the appeal of CB was its edgy,
not-really-legal feel, along with the fantasy-lifestyle which went along
with the films, the E-type Jaguar, the CB jargon, and the feel-good,
go-nowhere story (I was never a CBer, btw, I was licensed before this). So
perhaps the RSGB is heading the in the right direction in some respects!
The key follow-up TV series was The Dukes of Hazzard,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qogVHlmFcx0
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qogVHlmFcx0> which again featured a
feel-good, slightly edgy, CB and road-based series of escapades,
interspersed with Daisy Duke’s (Catherine Bach's) eyebrow-raising wardrobe:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToEHObxHqI4
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToEHObxHqI4>.

If that weren’t enough, we also had Smokie and the Bandit - here is the CB
tutorial made to go with the film - see Burt Reynolds teach you US CB talk:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRwiAk2wjZo
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRwiAk2wjZo>
Buford T Justice quotes from Smokie and the Bandit:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uN3c64j2DPE
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uN3c64j2DPE>


Analysis of the CB impact, and its cultural links
====================================
The biggest growth in amateur radio was as a direct consequence of Hollywood
lifestyle films, promoting a feel-good, slightly edgy, but ultimately
morally upright characters, taking on an establishment of well intentioned,
but ultimately corrupt figures. CB radio provides the key mechanism through
which the heroes and heroines communicate, using special language and social
networks which the establishment figures understand, but are unable to
effectively emulate.

The growth in illegal CB created a peak in demand for both better performing
radios and for more legitimacy amongst users in the UK. This directly
translated into a massive boost, around 8-fold growth, in successful RAE
candidates. The subsequent disappearance in CB-radio derived television and
film genre post 1980s, and its replacement with weak 1990s US ‘comedy’ shows
like Seinfeld, the Cosby Show providing ‘feel-good’ (if you liked them) and
the more dystopian Family Guy and South Park appealing to the more ‘edgy’
side of things, signalled the end of this CB-driven cultural era.
The very utopian Star Trek spin-off series attracted some of the more
scientifically minded, whilst the beautifully written, cast and acted
Blake’s 7, with its dystopian themes, went the way of the CB film and TV
show.

In these 1990s+ televised utopian worlds, the technology generally ‘just
works’. Sub-cultures, such as the CB/Truckers world are generally frowned
upon, and rarely shown in any kind of positive light. Scientists and
engineers are typically characterised in several, generally unflattering
ways, which can include ‘sneering intellectual’, ‘troubled mad-man’, ‘amoral
sociopath’, ‘socially inept figure of fun’. Or, for the mainstream
characters, they simply espouse a lot of non-sensical jargon, whilst shoving
their equivalent of the sonic screwdriver into something with lots of
flashing lights, which generally starts to work after a couple of bashes,
and the day is saved. This has changed little since the 1990s, with current
television shows characterising scientific types as ‘talking nasally’ and ‘a
bit dim really’, and always characters to laugh at.

Education
========
Our education system is deeply biased against males. Presently, 50% of
females attend university, but only 38% of males, and by 2025, 70% of
undergraduates will be female according to the OECD:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/universityeducation/5459854/Girls-will-take-up-70-per-cent-of-university-places-says-new-study.html

<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/universityeducation/5459854/Girls-will-take-up-70-per-cent-of-university-places-says-new-study.html>.


The beginning of this trend coincided exactly with the introduced of GCSEs
to replace O-levels in 1988, however, the trend towards academically
favouring females over males is representative in many countries as well as
the UK. The only area in Universities where males outnumber females
currently is in hard sciences. The recent ‘discovery’ of the links between
autism and science seem unlikely to influence policy makers overly.

This imbalance is shocking, and is something the amateur radio community
could look to address, by encouraging younger *males* in schools to consider
academic study. The remarks above regarding the very negative
characterisation of science and scientific culture in mainstream media are
probably related. ‘Nerd, Geek, Anorak, …’ very appealing!

As the RAE is fundamentally exam and practical based, it offers equal
opportunity, no matter your learning style, something which could be
promoted.

Ofcom, businesses and radio spectrum
==============================
Ofcom seem very interested in trying to hijack amateur radio spectrum in
order to ‘sell’ it to businesses. Once the family silver is gone, there
will be no getting it back. One argument is the falling number of licences
granted, however, there are far more now than there were 50 years ago, so
this seems to be a weak argument.

Contrarily, Ofcom appear to have zero role in, or even any recognition of,
the educational value of amateur radio.

Other interest groups
================
Radio amateurs have much in common with other amateur and professional
groups, such as Astronomers, IET, chess clubs, BCS (British Computing
Society). Politics usually gets in the way of things I know, but maybe
forming philosophical societies which include all of these people might help.


Conclusions
==========
1. A re-characterisation of scientific people in a positive light is
essential in mainstream culture. The moral and intellectual high-ground has
been lost, and needs be re-gained. Influencing mainstream media is
critical, and perhaps the RSGB’s film will address some of that, so in that
sense, I’ve rather persuaded myself that it has cultural value beyond my
initial feeling.

2. A nice glossy film associating amateur radio with feel-good, slightly
edgy, but ultimately morally upstanding lifestyle, accessible to all, yet
forming a powerful and desirable sub-culture, could well result in huge
growth again. It’s interesting to note that most dystopian, post-apocalypse
futures films do not show communications as existing at all; perhaps one
where radio amateurs continue to communicate in the dystopian future would
be an interesting new take. Raynet meets Mad Max, but feeling like Convoy.

3. Spin-off television with an amateur radio focus could have almost
immeasurable advantage. The adventures of the Wizards of West Kent :-) TX
Factor will not achieve this, it’s very good indeed, but is about amateur
radio, it’s not about lifestyle at all. Hmm - here’s a thought, why not
invite the TX factor team to make a show about one, or several Raynet
events? That could show amateur radio supporting the community in a very
positive way.

4. In 2003, RAE passes fell to below the 1959 level. I don’t know the
figures since, but we are 12 years on. Academically, there has been a
recent resurgence in scientific study at universities, so the time is
absolutely right to go back out to those science departments and look to
recruit into amateur radio. Be aware, though, that they are mostly male, so
any material should be made with that in mind!

5. The RSGB should work *with* Ofcom to make representation to academics
regarding amateur radio and its educational value. Ofcom should not be
simply acting as the store-keeper for spectrum.

6. Radio amateurs, clubs and the RSGB should work with other groups to
create and promote broad-interest philosophical societies, which can help
encourage males into education; noting that the RAE is highly
non-discriminatory.



============================
Tables of Amateurs around the world
============================

R.Amateurs By %age population, 15 years ago:


Country Number of amateur
radio operators % population Year of
Report Source
Japan 1,296,059 1.012 1999 [2]
Slovenia 6,500 0.317 2000 [2]
Republic of China 68,692 0.296 1999 [2]
South Korea 141,000 0.288 2000 [2]
Thailand 176,278 0.275 2006 [2]
United States 738,497 0.239 2012 [3]
Canada 69,183 0.201 2011 [3]
Denmark 8,668 0.156 2012 [5]
Spain 58,700 0.127 1999 [2]
Norway 5,302 0.106 2000 [2]
United Kingdom 58,426 0.094 2000 [2]
Germany 75,262 0.092 2007 [4]
Australia 15,328 0.067 2000 [2]
Italy 30,000 0.049 1993 [2]
Argentina 16,889 0.042 1999 [2]
Poland 16,000 0.041 2000 [2]
Ukraine 17,265 0.037 2000 [2]
Russia 38,000 0.026 1993 [2]
France 14,160 0.02 2013 [2]
Brazil 32,053 0.016 1997 [2]
South Africa 6,000 0.012 1994 [2]
Indonesia 27,815 0.011 1997 [2]
India 15,679 0.001 2000 [2]


RAs by absolute numbers 15 years ago:


Country Number of amateur
radio operators % population Year of
Report Source
Japan 1,296,059 1.012 1999 [2]
United States 738,497 0.239 2012 [3]
Thailand 176,278 0.275 2006 [2]
South Korea 141,000 0.288 2000 [2]
Germany 75,262 0.092 2007 [4]
Canada 69,183 0.201 2011 [3]
Republic of China 68,692 0.296 1999 [2]
Spain 58,700 0.127 1999 [2]
United Kingdom 58,426 0.094 2000 [2]
Russia 38,000 0.026 1993 [2]
Brazil 32,053 0.016 1997 [2]
Italy 30,000 0.049 1993 [2]
Indonesia 27,815 0.011 1997 [2]
Ukraine 17,265 0.037 2000 [2]
Argentina 16,889 0.042 1999 [2]
Poland 16,000 0.041 2000 [2]
India 15,679 0.001 2000 [2]
Australia 15,328 0.067 2000 [2]
France 14,160 0.02 2013 [2]
Denmark 8,668 0.156 2012 [5]
Slovenia 6,500 0.317 2000 [2]
South Africa 6,000 0.012 1994 [2]
Norway 5,302 0.106 2000 [2]



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