Monday morning I attended the Congressional Breakfast here at NAB. A report on this session from Broadcasting and Cable follows. Unfortunately it does not relate the context of the dialog that took place, and it is highly misleading in terms of the potential impact on broadcasters. To be certain, the House, under Barton's leadership is trying to apply pressure on broadcasters to get the DTV transition moving. Unfortunately the Senate does not share Barton's passion, nor do most of the members of Congress who were on the panel, or the broadcasters in the audience. What Barton is doing is little more than the normal sabre rattling that takes place prior to the long dance towards new legislation, designed to extract a few pounds of flesh from the industries that Congress and the FCC regulate. Bottom line, broadcasters still seek to extend the protection that they have become reliant upon to stay profitable. It is HIGHLY unlikely that a date certain deadline can survive an arduous trip through the Senate and the joint conference process. If anything happens regarding the DTV transition, it is likely to be part of the multi-industry shakedown that will take place next year when the Telecommunications Act of 1934 is re-written...again. Barton has now lowered the bar again on the cost of subsidized set-top boxes, now claiming that they will cost between $35 and $50. I can assure you that there is NOTHING happening here at NAB to support this unrealistic assumption. Set-top boxes are evolving rapidly...away from the dated ATSC platform limitations. Broadcasters complained about the lack of Congressional action to accelerate the requirement to make all TVs include an ATSC tuner. This is entirely consistent with the attitude that the broadcast business must be protected at all cost, despite the lack of support from both consumers and manufacturers. Tuesday morning the tables were turned as Eddie Fritts found himself playing the role of Sam Donaldson, in a replacement event for the FCC chairmen's breakfast. Donaldson was to interview Fritts and FCC Chairman Martin, but Martin could not make it to NAB due to the death of his Father last Friday. So Fritts found himself grilling Donaldson, Jeff Greenfield and Charles Osgood. The session turned out to be quite interesting, and I suspect Fritts was not thrilled with the frankness of the responses of these industry insiders. One could only conclude that the business model of broadcasting is dying. Greenfield questioned whether the advertiser supported business model is sustainable in the face of VOD and Tivo's, admitting that he finds the ability to watch a one hour program in 40 minutes quite compelling. But Donaldson dropped the real bomb. Fritts asked each of these industry vets to identify an issue that should scare the hell out of the broadcasters in the audience. Greenfield cited VOD and the PVR. Donaldson talked about the value of a broadcasters license. Stating that it might not happen tomorrow, or the day after, Donaldson warned that a license to broadcast would soon be WORTHLESS! Citing all of the distribution technologies that are beginning to bypass the broadcast gatekeeper model, and broadcasters reliance on cable and DBS for distribution, he warned that these licenses will soon be worthless pieces of paper. If local broadcasters do not focus on creating content, they will be irrelevant. Walking around the show floor it is not uncommon to see people engaged in conversations about the future role of broadcasters. Most believe the patient is dying and wonder when the"feeding tube" will be pulled. Chariman Barton is ready. Another fact of life that is evident here in Vegas, is the toll that continuing industry consolidation is taking. The mating of dinosaurs is accelerating. In my 27 years attending NAB, I have never seen so many high level people forced to find new jobs, or so many people who are leaving an industry that they believe has no future. On the other hand, NAB (the show) has never been so vibrant. Attendance is up - considerably - and vendors are reporting robust sales. Those broadcasters who can afford to show up are walking around dumbfounded, trying to figure out why they are becoming irrelevant as the television industry moves from a "baseband" to an IT infrastructure. Regards Craig http://www.broadcastingcable.com/article/CA525792.html?display=Breaking+News&referral=SUPP Barton Readies Hard-Date Bill by Bill McConnell -- Broadcasting & Cable, 4/18/2005 1:20:00 PM House Commerce Committee chairman Joe Barton (R-Texas) told broadcasters Monday that his digital-television-transition legislation will be ready in two or three weeks. Barton said that the bill will definitely contain a "hard" deadline for cutting off old analog TV signals and making stations operate digital-only. Still under discussion with other committee members is a possible provision that would expand broadcasters' digital cable carriage rights. With apologies to broadcasters, Barton said he still favors a Dec. 31, 2006 deadline, but conceded he's willing to compromise with other members who want to give stations more time. Some in congress have said the cut-off could be the new third rail of politics if too many people are potentially disenfranchised. Barton, however, ruled out extending the deadline as far out as 2009, as suggested by New York Democratic Congressman Eliot Engle. "If we go a little later than 2006, I'm OK with that, "Barton said. "But I don't mean three years" Barton and Engle made their comments during a breakfast panel at the NAB's annual convention in Las Vegas. Other participants included House Telecommunications Subcommittee Chairman Fred Upton and House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Sensenbrenner. The session was moderated by ABC News' Sam Donaldson. Barton said he continues to support using some proceeds from auctioning reclaimed analog spectrum to provide a subsidy to low-income people that would cover the cost of converter boxes needed to keep old analog sets working in the all-digital world. He said the cost of the boxes could be as low as $35 a piece. Previous estimates pegged the low-end price tag at $50 a box. Teasing Donaldson, Barton said Congress might instead choose to pay for the subsidy by raiding the ABC pension. "We're going to name it the Sam Donaldson set top box. You are going to go out in a blaze of glory." ---------------------------------------------------------------------- You can UNSUBSCRIBE from the OpenDTV list in two ways: - Using the UNSUBSCRIBE command in your user configuration settings at FreeLists.org - By sending a message to: opendtv-request@xxxxxxxxxxxxx with the word unsubscribe in the subject line.