It's more like 5 flights, he said in the presentation that it takes
multiple tanker launches to fuel the passenger craft.
There's not much point in making the assumption that one engine going
out will destroy the vehicle.
On Fri, Sep 30, 2016 at 7:35 AM, Daniel Rocha <danieldiniz@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
"A 42 engine vehicle with similar individual engine reliability, 84.5%."
(0.845)^42=0.0847% chance of success. 2 flights are necessary. One to send
the capsule to LEO and another to sendo fuel to the ITS to fly to Mars. So,
the chance of the plan going alright is 0.0000717%. That is, if an engine
exploding and take the whole rocket with it.
