[opendtv] Re: WiFi Supplanting Broadcasting? Get Real!
- From: Bob Miller <bob@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 01:55:53 -0400
Kon Wilms wrote:
>>I agree on the timeline, 5 years plus, but that isn't so long and there
>>
>>
>could be a surprise or two in the meantime.
>
>So we agree on something :-)
>
>I don't see the surprise though - this type of stuff is commonplace here in
>LA and there are many providers. http://www.edgefocus.net/services.html ,
>http://wireless.exo.com/map.php , etc.
>
>
>
>>Everything you say is true. But here is one example. A multiGigE radio
>>
>>
>that cost not $25 to $35 K now but even $85 to $100 K the pair
>installed and does 2.5 Gbps. In talking to the brains behind it you find
>
>Yeah your speed is only limited by your cash account and the speed of the
>hardware delivering the data. When you go over the GigE mark you need some
>pretty specialized hardware to handle logging, IDS, and so forth. The
>question is do you really need all this speed to the edge, or can you save
>money and multicast content using high compression codecs and soft ECC.
>
>
>
You still use the better codecs.
>>capability is higher, 12.5 Gbps, with a little work, and the cost of the
>>
>>
>radio in quantity five years out could be $2000 the pair. The antenna is
>a 2 ft. dish but it could and will be a phased array with directed beams
>and one antenna could deliver hundreds of beams and be what appears to
>be a Coke sign or part of the facade of a building. The beams are so
>narrow that in a city like NYC you have virtually infinite bandwidth.
>
>Vaporware is virtual too. :-) But yes - with wifi and the internet in
>general come great expectations. Still, this is all *future* technology. And
>has nothing to do with some of the press releases made very recently stating
>that WiFi will take over OTA broadcasting as in very soon.
>
>
Agreed.
>So this thing is running now - what do I need as a consumer to connect to
>it? Oh right, a $25K box. Don't brandish around GigE speeds when that isn't
>the reality for a user.
>
>
The GigE network just gets the high bitrates into the neighborhood
without using the costly fiber with its monthly charges. Build a mesh
GigE network and deliver off of it to end users with other short range
wireless tech. People are already pricing out these networks and this
will bring the wireless GigE network cost down rapidly IMO. This is
where I might be surprised and hope to be.
>
>
>>Just look at Verizon announcing for the tenth time that they are going
>>
>>
>to invest a billion $ in FTTH. These guys are going to do an AT&T.
>
>More dark fiber to the curb.
>
>
>
>>Instead of buying cable companies they are going to build them from
>>
>>
>scratch with union help and the most expensive tech they can find. If
>they actually do it they will come out of this money burning tunnel
>downsized to something more in keeping with the reality of their
>bankrupt business plan.
>
>I think the reality is that cablecos are rolling out combined service plans
>(VoIP for $10/mo more is one local) - and the telcos are running scared.
>Their only option is to compete, and thus provide video delivery services
>over their networks. They can't do this with some of their existing services
>, so the only option is to completely convert everything to IP networks and
>roll out VoDSL, VoWiFi, and other customized VoIP solutions that remove
>unneeded hardware from the CO/POP/wheverever, all the while building their
>backbones to support video delivery and other data services. If they don't,
>cableco will eat their lunch.
>
>Cheers
>Kon
>
>
So cable will eat there lunch and right behind the cable companies are
the new guys with wireless megaband IP networks. These networks can be
built for less than the yearly maintenance cost of current cable
companies plants. Both the Telcos and the cable companies are heavily in
debt and the Telcos are unioned up so these big guys can fall pretty
quick to the many piranha that will attack their skinny legs with
quickly deployed wireless networks.
Some report said that 85% customers would desert current cable and telco
companies for as little as a $2 a month savings since their reputations
are such that anyway out looks good. That is the way I have felt about
any of them for donkeys years. Boy are they ripe.
Vonage works great. Verizon is history with me.
>
>
>
>
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