[opendtv] Re: WiFi Supplanting Broadcasting? Get Real!
- From: Bob Miller <bob@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 00:05:22 -0400
Kon Wilms wrote:
>>If your argument is that Wi-Fi by itself can not supplant broadcasting=20
>>
>>
>fine. I agree.=20
>
>The subject like on the thread answers that one.
>
>
>
>>wireless technology and connections to fiber nodes then yes Wi-Fi can=20
>>
>>
>be part of a wireless system that can supplant current one way TV/DTV=20
>broadcasting as regulated by the FCC as full power broadcasters to fixed =
>
>receivers.
>
>At the edge you have WiFi boxes, all unicast based, and all unable to =
>handle
>more than a hundred or so users per node. Throw the easy ability to jam =
>the
>access points with a cordless phone and the fact that this is truly a
>hacker's dream (much packets to sniff and RSTs to send) and you have a
>disaster waiting to happen.
>
>You need nextgen WiFi standards and boxes to make this a success. Anyone
>doing it now is doing it for fun. Anyone doing it commercially (for
>broadcast replacement) is surely either na=EFve, insane, or careless.
>
>
>
>>The multiGbps meshnet MAN will be GigE wireless. It obviously is GigE I =
>>
>>
>
>don't see why you say it isn't. Such a network for backhaul eliminates=20
>
>That=92s to the backbone. Users don't connect to the backbone - period =
>end of
>story - so this point is completely moot. You're still constrained by =
>the
>small pipes at the edge. Your backbone could be 10GigE for all we care - =
>it
>would make no difference.
>
>A GigE wireless AP costs $25-35k. There are no consumer versions. Nice =
>try
>though.
>
>
>
>>I expect content providers to be attracted more and more to this new =
>>
>>
>way=20
>to reach their customers bypassing all current gatekeepers. One way OTA=20
>broadcasting will be limited to mobile and portable reception. The fact=20
>that it can be received fixed also will be incidental.
>
>Waving of hands.=20
>
>Where can I buy a WiFi STB with service? How many content companies =
>(people
>with real content, not fly-by-nites) do you know that distribute all =
>their
>content on the internet vs. satellite DTH? Howcome almost all the WiFi =
>APs
>out there have such crappy backplanes that they can't even carry =
>multicast
>traffic at low bitrates without falling over, or squelching other =
>sessions?
>Name a fully redundant mesh that covers 50k people and provides full =
>bitrate
>to all 50k people (I chose 50k for a conservative viewer base compared =
>to
>OTA). The list goes on.
>
>Maybe in 5 years this will start to happen and things will mature (and
>attract content delivery folks) - but for right now, you're pipe =
>dreaming.
>
>I have some Streaming Media conference tickets to sell you...
>
>Cheers
>Kon
>
>
I agree on the timeline, 5 years plus, but that isn't so long and there
could be a surprise or two in the meantime.
Everything you say is true. But here is one example. A multiGigE radio
that cost not $25 to $35 K now but even $85 to $100 K the pair
installed and does 2.5 Gbps. In talking to the brains behind it you find
that this price is one off funny money pricing. The reality is that the
capability is higher, 12.5 Gbps, with a little work, and the cost of the
radio in quantity five years out could be $2000 the pair. The antenna is
a 2 ft. dish but it could and will be a phased array with directed beams
and one antenna could deliver hundreds of beams and be what appears to
be a Coke sign or part of the facade of a building. The beams are so
narrow that in a city like NYC you have virtually infinite bandwidth.
Connections can be made from within one office to another through the
window if necessary, no roof rights, nothing attached to the building.
We had one of these connections running in Manhattan over a year ago.
Took about 3 hours to set up and it did 1.2 Gbps full duplex through the
rain, though windows on both ends. The FCC will give final approval by
June. We could have had another such radio 12 ft away going to the same
building to another radio 12 ft away on the other end. If they were not
in the same building then the radios could be right next to one another.
I remember meeting 16 year old kids that were building the first ISPs in
1994. They had gotten bulletin board software for their 13th birthday
and now they were starting ISPs. Some of those kids are now into
wireless bigtime and they are only 26. And there is a much larger group
of kids that are 16 who know a lot more than these kids did at 16 and a
lot of them live in China and Taiwan. I don't see how any current
business plan of the cable, telco or satellite companies that I know of
survives the coming wireless tsunami.
Just look at Verizon announcing for the tenth time that they are going
to invest a billion $ in FTTH. These guys are going to do an AT&T.
Instead of buying cable companies they are going to build them from
scratch with union help and the most expensive tech they can find. If
they actually do it they will come out of this money burning tunnel
downsized to something more in keeping with the reality of their
bankrupt business plan.
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