[lit-ideas] Polls: for future reference
- From: Eric Yost <mr.eric.yost@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Wed, 05 Nov 2008 23:42:47 -0500
The List: Which presidential polls were most accurate?
The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the
most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008
election, according to a new analysis by Fordham
University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.
The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research
organizations on their final, national pre-election
polls, as reported on pollster.com.
On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama's
strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead
by an average of 7.52 percentage points -- 1.37
percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular
vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated
Obama's final victory level, while four underestimated
it. Only two -- Rasmussen and Pew -- were spot on.
http://blogs.chron.com/txpotomac/2008/11/the_list_which_presidential_po.html
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