[lit-ideas] Re: More places to nuke
- From: "Simon Ward" <sedward@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: <lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Thu, 23 Feb 2006 00:19:11 -0000
This looks like a good analysis.
http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/060221_iran_wmd.pdf
It does, even if it is only a provisional study. But 223 pages is a lot to
get through.
Still, and being selective because I can, it's worth noting that:
"...it is hard to discuss the case against Iran without raising questions
about the stakes the US and the UK made in characterizing Iraq’s efforts to
acquire weapons of mass dstruction. The US in particular, has problems in
convincing the international community that Iran is a grave threat to global
security. Credibility is a precious commodity, and one that can ometimes be
worth more than gold.
"The problems in addressing Iran’s capabilities go beyond the ability to
determine the facts. Since 2002, the Bush Administration and EU3 have
consistently argued that the Iranian efforts to aquire nuclear weapons are
real and that they must be stopped. The ability of the US, the IAEA, and the
EU3 to halt the Iranian nuclear program is complicated, however, by the
mistakes that the US and Britain made in dealing with Iraq.
"It is also impossible to deny the fact that Iran is being judged by a
different standard because its regime is associated with terrorism, efforts
to export its Shi’ite revolution, and reckless political rhetoric. There is
nothing wrong with a “dual standard.” Nations that present exceptional risks
require exceptional treatment. The fact remains, however, that Iran was
under missile and chemical attack from Iraq, and seems to have revived its
nuclear programs at a time that Iraq was already involved in a major effort
to acquire biological and nuclear weapons. Iran has major neighbors --
India, Israel, and Pakistan -- that have already proliferated. It must deal
with the presence of two outside nuclear powers: Russia near its northern
border and the US in the Gulf.
"The situation is further confused by the fact there is an increasingly thin
line between the technology needed to create a comprehensive nuclear fuel
cycle for nuclear power generation and dual use technology that can be used
to covertly develop nuclear weapons. A nation can be both excused and
accused for the same actions. This can make it almost as difficult, if not
impossible, to conclusively prove Iran’s guilt as its innocence,
particularly if its programs consist of a large number of small, dispersed
efforts, and larger “dual-use” facilities.
"Some efforts at proliferation have been called a “bomb in the basement” –
programs to create a convincing picture that a nation has a weapon without
any open testing or formal declaration. Iran seems to be trying to develop a
“bomb in a fog;” to keep its efforts both covert and confusing enough so
that there will be no conclusive evidence that will catalyze the UN into
cohesive and meaningful action or justify a US response. Such a strategy
must be made more overt in the long-run if it is to make Iran a credible
nuclear power, but the long-run can easily stretch out for years; Iran can
break up its efforts into smaller, research oriented programs or pause them;
focus on dual-use nuclear efforts with a plausible rational; permit even
intrusive inspection; and still move forward.
etc....
In other words, there is no real way of telling and even if there were,
we're talking about years ahead, not weeks or months.
Which is not as the Bush regime would have it.
Nuclear proliferation, or the threat of it, is an excuse. It's not the
primary reason. Just as WMD evidence was not the reason to go into Iraq.
Just as connections to terrorist organisations was not the reason. Just as
inhumanity was not the reason...
The reason doesn't have anything to do with the population if Iraq or Iran.
The Bush regime couldn't give a...etc
Simon
Moderated by four pints of Rev. James (4.5%)
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