[opendtv] Re: Local TV stations face uncertain future
- From: "Dale Kelly" <dalekelly@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Wed, 25 Feb 2009 12:31:08 -0800
Craig wrote:
> You may be correct Dale, but I would humbly suggest that the networks
> knew that ATSC would not as advertised, even before the standard was
> adopted by the FCC. I believe that one "unINTENDED consequence" of the
> DTV transition was to slowly kill the local OTA distribution platform,
> so that the networks could have total control over their content and the
> resulting ad revenues.
I don't disagree with your analysis however I do believe that the 1999
receiver tests spurred them on.
-----Original Message-----
From: opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Tom Barry
Sent: Tuesday, February 24, 2009 4:25 PM
To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [opendtv] Re: Local TV stations face uncertain future
Some of this may be posturing and saber rattling for the next time
affiliates must negotiate. I don't think it is an all or nothing
proposition but the networks might set terms for NON-exclusive rights to
affiliates while still selling direct to cable. That still keeps the
networks with the most eyeballs yet gives them more of add dollars and
retrans fees.
Local stations would get the censored airplane version though I think it
would devalue both OTA and cable to delay the OTA version of most shows.
Though there could be some exceptions.
The alternative to all the above is simply worse terms for affiliates to
which they may still have to agree unless they want to become independents.
- Tom
Craig Birkmaier wrote:
> At 4:23 PM -0800 2/23/09, Dale Kelly wrote:
>> This has been the major Networks alternate business plan for about eight
>> years and those of you who have been on this list that long will
>> recall my
>> oft-repeated prediction of such an eventual outcome.
>>
>> The "shot heard around the world" precipitating this likely outcome
>> was the
>> ATSC receivers very poor performance achieved during Sinclair's 1999
>> ATSC/COFDM tests. Given such bad news the Networks recognized the need
>> for
>> alternative business plans.
>> IMO, had the second generation receivers resolved the reception issue as
>> promised, this plan B may have never been pursued to this outcome.
>
> You may be correct Dale, but I would humbly suggest that the networks
> knew that ATSC would not as advertised, even before the standard was
> adopted by the FCC. I believe that one "unINTENDED consequence" of the
> DTV transition was to slowly kill the local OTA distribution platform,
> so that the networks could have total control over their content and the
> resulting ad revenues.
>
> IMHO, the "shot heard around the world" was the 1992 Cable Act, which
> gave the networks the retransmission consent leverage they needed to
> rebuild their empires. They knew that they could take over most of the
> prime cable real estate, and then off-load affiliate compensation onto
> the cable systems.
>
> If they were blind-sided with their long term plans, it was the Internet
> that caught them by surprise.
>
> You may also recall the many discussions we have had about content
> restrictions on FTA broadcasts. The networks would love to have the same
> freedom as HBO, Showtime, et al to include nudity, sex, and language
> that cannot be presented via FTA broadcasts.
>
> So the next shoe to drop will be direct carriage of uncensored network
> programming via cable and DBS, with the affiliates getting the censored
> version for broadcast a week or two after it is aired on cable.
>
> One can hear Roy and Dale Rogers singing Happy Trails as DTV rides off
> the digital cliff...
>
> Regards
> Craig
>
>
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