[opendtv] Re: Local TV stations face uncertain future
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Tue, 24 Feb 2009 08:15:33 -0500
At 4:23 PM -0800 2/23/09, Dale Kelly wrote:
This has been the major Networks alternate business plan for about eight
years and those of you who have been on this list that long will recall my
oft-repeated prediction of such an eventual outcome.
The "shot heard around the world" precipitating this likely outcome was the
ATSC receivers very poor performance achieved during Sinclair's 1999
ATSC/COFDM tests. Given such bad news the Networks recognized the need for
alternative business plans.
IMO, had the second generation receivers resolved the reception issue as
promised, this plan B may have never been pursued to this outcome.
You may be correct Dale, but I would humbly suggest that the networks
knew that ATSC would not as advertised, even before the standard was
adopted by the FCC. I believe that one "unINTENDED consequence" of
the DTV transition was to slowly kill the local OTA distribution
platform, so that the networks could have total control over their
content and the resulting ad revenues.
IMHO, the "shot heard around the world" was the 1992 Cable Act,
which gave the networks the retransmission consent leverage they
needed to rebuild their empires. They knew that they could take over
most of the prime cable real estate, and then off-load affiliate
compensation onto the cable systems.
If they were blind-sided with their long term plans, it was the
Internet that caught them by surprise.
You may also recall the many discussions we have had about content
restrictions on FTA broadcasts. The networks would love to have the
same freedom as HBO, Showtime, et al to include nudity, sex, and
language that cannot be presented via FTA broadcasts.
So the next shoe to drop will be direct carriage of uncensored
network programming via cable and DBS, with the affiliates getting
the censored version for broadcast a week or two after it is aired on
cable.
One can hear Roy and Dale Rogers singing Happy Trails as DTV rides
off the digital cliff...
Regards
Craig
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