[opendtv] Re: 20051120 Schubin's Sunday Stuff (Mark's Monday Memo)
- From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Mon, 21 Nov 2005 18:56:44 -0500
Mark Schubin wrote:
> But here are some year-to-date figures I am permitted
> to release for what CEA calls "digita television":
>
> Through the 43rd week - DOWN 1.3%
> Through the 42nd week - DOWN 0.4%
> Through the 41st week - UP 1.2 %
> Through the 40th week - UP 1.5%
> Through the 39th week - UP 2.9%
> Through the 38th week - UP 3.6%
> Through the 37th week - UP 4.4%
> Through the 36th week - UP 5.2%
> Through the 35th week - UP 5.6%
> Through the 34th week - UP 6.7%
>
> Do you not see a trend there?
Yes, I see a single-percent-digit INCREASE for "digital TV"
products until the 42nd week, followed by a slight downturn
on the 42nd and 43rd weeks. Agreed? So not much change, week
to week, for sales of so-called "digital."
> Well, here are the year-to-date numbers for analog for
> the same period. I'll use Brinkley's (and CEA's) figures
> without the combo sets, because those percentages are more
> readily available:
>
> Through the 43rd week - down 13.2%
> Through the 42nd week - down 12.5%
> Through the 41st week - down 12.3%
> Through the 40th week - down 12.3%
> Through the 39th week - down 12.7%
> Through the 38th week - down 12.6%
> Through the 37th week - down 12%
> Through the 36th week - down 12.3%
> Through the 35th week - down 13.5%
> Through the 34th week - down 13.6%
And here I see a double-percent-digit, steady drop in sales
of analog sets, between 12 and 13.6 percent, from the 34th
through the 43rd week. A steady and significant erosion of
sales of analog sets.
> Now, maybe you have some fascinating mathematical tool that
> will come to a different conclusion, and I eagerly await
> your sharing it with us. But, using simple arithmetic,
> I'd say "digital television" has been steadily declining
> over the past ten weeks, while analog, give or take a
> hiccup, has been roughly steady.
Perhaps I don't understand what up and down mean. If "digital"
is steady, more or less, while analog goes down significantly,
one would expect analog to reach zero faster than digital?
The year-to-date drop of digital by 1.7 percent, compared with
last year, seems to confirm this. The analog drop, compared to
last year at the same time, was much higher than 1.7 percent.
The analog drop was 23.4 percent. So what am I missing?
Bert
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