[opendtv] Re: 20051120 Schubin's Sunday Stuff (Mark's Monday Memo)
- From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 22 Nov 2005 11:00:09 -0500
Bob Miller wrote:
>>But here are some year-to-date figures I am permitted
>>to release for what CEA calls "digita television":
>>
>>Through the 43rd week - DOWN 1.3%
>>Through the 42nd week - DOWN 0.4%
>>Through the 41st week - UP 1.2 %
>>Through the 40th week - UP 1.5%
>>Through the 39th week - UP 2.9%
>>Through the 38th week - UP 3.6%
>>Through the 37th week - UP 4.4%
>>Through the 36th week - UP 5.2%
>>Through the 35th week - UP 5.6%
>>Through the 34th week - UP 6.7%
>>
>>Do you not see a trend there?
>>
>>Well, here are the year-to-date numbers for analog for
>>the same period. I'll use Brinkley's (and CEA's) figures
>>without the combo sets, because those percentages are more
>>readily available:
>>
>>Through the 43rd week - down 13.2%
>>Through the 42nd week - down 12.5%
>>Through the 41st week - down 12.3%
>>Through the 40th week - down 12.3%
>>Through the 39th week - down 12.7%
>>Through the 38th week - down 12.6%
>>Through the 37th week - down 12%
>>Through the 36th week - down 12.3%
>>Through the 35th week - down 13.5%
>>Through the 34th week - down 13.6%
> Bert Mark is probably pulling his hair out on this one. Have
> you ever taken a math class or statistics? Do you know what
> a trend is?
>
> The analog sales figures show basically a yearly decline to
> day of 13%, not much of a trend. You would have to look at a
> number of years to see a trend for those figures. But the
> digital sales show a "trend" this year. That trend is down
> week by week. First it is a trend down in the positive but in
> the last two weeks it has gone negative.
Let me make it simple for everyone.
The first derivative, the actual sales delta from last year to
this year, shows that digital TV sales are fairly even. Flat, in
other words. Whereas analog TV sales are in steady and
relentless decline.
The second derivative, acceleration in sales, shows that the
rate of change of sales for digital sets has gone from slight
increase to slight decrease. And you and Mark are assuming that
this second derivative will continue on this trend.
As of today, however, the simple fact is that analog sales are
way off compared to last year, whereas digital sales are only
slightly less. Brinkley said over 23.4 percent less analog sales
(hint: that means 3 sets sold this year for every 4 sets sold
last year) and 1.7 percent less in digital sales (hint: that's
98 sets sold this year where 100 were sold last year).
> But then a real statistician might detect that the rate of
> change is not just increasing but that it is accelerating and
> then all bets are off. We could be down digitally 50% for
> Christmas.
Or the real statistician, and Brinkley too, might not go so far.
Brinkley's point was, if you bother to read his column, that
the boom in digital sales has not happened. He has not made any
claim about digital sales going down the tube, or are worse than
analog sales.
Quoting what Brinkley actually wrote:
"Most interesting to me are these conclusions derived from the
CEA figures. So far this year, 21 percent of all TV sets sold
have been digital. But for the most recent week, ending Nov. 4,
the percentage was just 20 percent.
"This is just one week, and the difference is almost meaningless.
But that, plus the drop in overall sales, does show that the
public is not running en masse, in every greater numbers, to buy
digital televisions. That makes me wonder about the Parks
Associates claim that 'consumers are beginning to see the true
benefits of HDTV.' That's easy to say, impossible to prove."
My conclusion is that people are not interested in the boring
old big analog CRT sets, or fuzzy RPTVs, but at the same time,
they aren't seeing the prices of the new "digital" sets low
enough yet to replace their big old analog TVs that cost only
$200. Case in pooint, the 26" set I bought last year, for over
$1200, still costs $900 this year. Hardly cheap enough to be seen
as a replacement for an analog set that would cost less than
$200 today.
Bert
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