[opendtv] Re: 20051120 Schubin's Sunday Stuff (Mark's Monday Memo)

I will try once again.  The figures are NOT relative to the previous 
week.  The figures are relative to the same period the previous YEAR.

Thus, there is a steady deterioration in the rate of so-called "digital 
television" sales.  There are fewer analog TVs sold this year, but the 
rate is not deteriorating.  As I showed in my first response to you, if 
you took, say, a ten-week recent running average, you'd have a higher 
(yes, double digit) deterioration.

Brinkley had no problem seeing this trend.  I have no problem seeing 
this trend.

You see it as noise.

Have a nice evening.

TTFN,
Mark


Manfredi, Albert E wrote:

>Mark Schubin wrote:
>
>  
>
>>But here are some year-to-date figures I am permitted
>>to release for what CEA calls "digita television":
>>
>>Through the 43rd week - DOWN 1.3%
>>Through the 42nd week - DOWN 0.4%
>>Through the 41st week - UP 1.2 %
>>Through the 40th week - UP 1.5%
>>Through the 39th week - UP 2.9%
>>Through the 38th week - UP 3.6%
>>Through the 37th week - UP 4.4%
>>Through the 36th week - UP 5.2%
>>Through the 35th week - UP 5.6%
>>Through the 34th week - UP 6.7%
>>
>>Do you not see a trend there?
>>    
>>
>
>Yes, I see a single-percent-digit INCREASE for "digital TV"
>products until the 42nd week, followed by a slight downturn
>on the 42nd and 43rd weeks. Agreed? So not much change, week
>to week, for sales of so-called "digital."
>
>  
>
>>Well, here are the year-to-date numbers for analog for
>>the same period.  I'll use Brinkley's (and CEA's) figures
>>without the combo sets, because those percentages are more
>>readily available:
>>
>>Through the 43rd week - down 13.2%
>>Through the 42nd week - down 12.5%
>>Through the 41st week - down 12.3%
>>Through the 40th week - down 12.3%
>>Through the 39th week - down 12.7%
>>Through the 38th week - down 12.6%
>>Through the 37th week - down 12%
>>Through the 36th week - down 12.3%
>>Through the 35th week - down 13.5%
>>Through the 34th week - down 13.6%
>>    
>>
>
>And here I see a double-percent-digit, steady drop in sales
>of analog sets, between 12 and 13.6 percent, from the 34th
>through the 43rd week. A steady and significant erosion of
>sales of analog sets.
>
>  
>
>>Now, maybe you have some fascinating mathematical tool that
>>will come to a different conclusion, and I eagerly await
>>your sharing it with us.  But, using simple arithmetic,
>>I'd say "digital television" has been steadily declining
>>over the past ten weeks, while analog, give or take a
>>hiccup, has been roughly steady.
>>    
>>
>
>Perhaps I don't understand what up and down mean. If "digital"
>is steady, more or less, while analog goes down significantly,
>one would expect analog to reach zero faster than digital?
>
>The year-to-date drop of digital by 1.7 percent, compared with
>last year, seems to confirm this. The analog drop, compared to
>last year at the same time, was much higher than 1.7 percent.
>The analog drop was 23.4 percent. So what am I missing?
>
>Bert
>
> 
> 
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