[opendtv] Re: 20051120 Schubin's Sunday Stuff (Mark's Monday Memo)

I have only minor disagreements with Brinkley.  He doesn't count TV/DVD 
combos; I do.  He's also a little off on where CEA gets its figures.

Brinkley's 1.7% is a figure I am not yet permitted to release (I have to 
wait until Thursday), but it is a year-to-date figure.  The figures I 
offered are weekly figures.

We both see the same downward trend.  Because the trend started well 
into 2005, the year-to-date figures do not reflect it as much as the 
weekly figures.

But here are some year-to-date figures I am permitted to release for 
what CEA calls "digita television":

Through the 43rd week - DOWN 1.3%
Through the 42nd week - DOWN 0.4%
Through the 41st week - UP 1.2 %
Through the 40th week - UP 1.5%
Through the 39th week - UP 2.9%
Through the 38th week - UP 3.6%
Through the 37th week - UP 4.4%
Through the 36th week - UP 5.2%
Through the 35th week - UP 5.6%
Through the 34th week - UP 6.7%

Do you not see a trend there?

You thought that trend was noise relative to analog.  Well, here are the 
year-to-date numbers for analog for the same period.  I'll use 
Brinkley's (and CEA's) figures without the combo sets, because those 
percentages are more readily available:

Through the 43rd week - down 13.2%
Through the 42nd week - down 12.5%
Through the 41st week - down 12.3%
Through the 40th week - down 12.3%
Through the 39th week - down 12.7%
Through the 38th week - down 12.6%
Through the 37th week - down 12%
Through the 36th week - down 12.3%
Through the 35th week - down 13.5%
Through the 34th week - down 13.6%

Now, maybe you have some fascinating mathematical tool that will come to 
a different conclusion, and I eagerly await your sharing it with us.  
But, using simple arithmetic, I'd say "digital television" has been 
steadily declining over the past ten weeks, while analog, give or take a 
hiccup, has been roughly steady.

If the two trends continue, the "digital" drop may well end the year 
greater than the analog drop.

TTFN,
Mark



Manfredi, Albert E wrote:

>Mark Schubin wrote:
>
>  
>
>>For week 43, CEA's reported "digital television" sales
>>were down 24.7% compared to the same week in 2004.  For
>>week 42, they were down 19.3%.  For week 41, 8.3%.  For
>>week 40, 34%.  For week 39, 10.5%.  For week 38, 13.9%.
>>For week 37,  16%.  For week 36, 11.9%.  For week 35,
>>22.1%.
>>
>>Furthermore, for week 43, if TV/DVD combos are included,
>>the analog drop was 23.4%, LESS than the digital drop.
>>
>>It's not "noise level."
>>    
>>
>
>Mark, I think your disagreement is with the blog. I quoted
>from this URL you pointed out:
>
>  
>
>><http://blog.ultimateavmag.com/joelbrinkley/>
>>    
>>
>
>Quoting:
>
>"The Consumer Electronics Association collects data from dealers
>every week and puts out reports showing what the dealers are
>buying. So far this year sales of digital sets are down. As of
>November 4, dealers had bought 3,491,513 digital sets from
>manufacturers. Last year at this point they had bought 3,550,291
>digital sets. That's a drop of 1.7 percent.
>
>"During the same period, dealers purchased 13,950,023 analog
>direct-view sets, 13.3 percent fewer than in 2004."
>
>End quote.
>
>The "noise level" comment is a reference to their 1.7 percent
>drop through 4 Nov. Perhaps his numbers disagree with the CEA
>numbers.
>
>Bert
>
> 
> 
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