I have only minor disagreements with Brinkley. He doesn't count TV/DVD combos; I do. He's also a little off on where CEA gets its figures. Brinkley's 1.7% is a figure I am not yet permitted to release (I have to wait until Thursday), but it is a year-to-date figure. The figures I offered are weekly figures. We both see the same downward trend. Because the trend started well into 2005, the year-to-date figures do not reflect it as much as the weekly figures. But here are some year-to-date figures I am permitted to release for what CEA calls "digita television": Through the 43rd week - DOWN 1.3% Through the 42nd week - DOWN 0.4% Through the 41st week - UP 1.2 % Through the 40th week - UP 1.5% Through the 39th week - UP 2.9% Through the 38th week - UP 3.6% Through the 37th week - UP 4.4% Through the 36th week - UP 5.2% Through the 35th week - UP 5.6% Through the 34th week - UP 6.7% Do you not see a trend there? You thought that trend was noise relative to analog. Well, here are the year-to-date numbers for analog for the same period. I'll use Brinkley's (and CEA's) figures without the combo sets, because those percentages are more readily available: Through the 43rd week - down 13.2% Through the 42nd week - down 12.5% Through the 41st week - down 12.3% Through the 40th week - down 12.3% Through the 39th week - down 12.7% Through the 38th week - down 12.6% Through the 37th week - down 12% Through the 36th week - down 12.3% Through the 35th week - down 13.5% Through the 34th week - down 13.6% Now, maybe you have some fascinating mathematical tool that will come to a different conclusion, and I eagerly await your sharing it with us. But, using simple arithmetic, I'd say "digital television" has been steadily declining over the past ten weeks, while analog, give or take a hiccup, has been roughly steady. If the two trends continue, the "digital" drop may well end the year greater than the analog drop. TTFN, Mark Manfredi, Albert E wrote: >Mark Schubin wrote: > > > >>For week 43, CEA's reported "digital television" sales >>were down 24.7% compared to the same week in 2004. For >>week 42, they were down 19.3%. For week 41, 8.3%. For >>week 40, 34%. For week 39, 10.5%. For week 38, 13.9%. >>For week 37, 16%. For week 36, 11.9%. For week 35, >>22.1%. >> >>Furthermore, for week 43, if TV/DVD combos are included, >>the analog drop was 23.4%, LESS than the digital drop. >> >>It's not "noise level." >> >> > >Mark, I think your disagreement is with the blog. I quoted >from this URL you pointed out: > > > >><http://blog.ultimateavmag.com/joelbrinkley/> >> >> > >Quoting: > >"The Consumer Electronics Association collects data from dealers >every week and puts out reports showing what the dealers are >buying. So far this year sales of digital sets are down. As of >November 4, dealers had bought 3,491,513 digital sets from >manufacturers. Last year at this point they had bought 3,550,291 >digital sets. That's a drop of 1.7 percent. > >"During the same period, dealers purchased 13,950,023 analog >direct-view sets, 13.3 percent fewer than in 2004." > >End quote. > >The "noise level" comment is a reference to their 1.7 percent >drop through 4 Nov. Perhaps his numbers disagree with the CEA >numbers. > >Bert > > > >---------------------------------------------------------------------- >You can UNSUBSCRIBE from the OpenDTV list in two ways: > >- Using the UNSUBSCRIBE command in your user configuration settings at >FreeLists.org > >- By sending a message to: opendtv-request@xxxxxxxxxxxxx with the word >unsubscribe in the subject line. > > > > > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- You can UNSUBSCRIBE from the OpenDTV list in two ways: - Using the UNSUBSCRIBE command in your user configuration settings at FreeLists.org - By sending a message to: opendtv-request@xxxxxxxxxxxxx with the word unsubscribe in the subject line.