[opendtv] Re: 20051120 Schubin's Sunday Stuff (Mark's Monday Memo)

Do these CEA figures still exclude LCD and plasma displays?


On 22-Nov-05, at 11:00 AM, Manfredi, Albert E wrote:

> Bob Miller wrote:
>
>>> But here are some year-to-date figures I am permitted
>>> to release for what CEA calls "digita television":
>>>
>>> Through the 43rd week - DOWN 1.3%
>>> Through the 42nd week - DOWN 0.4%
>>> Through the 41st week - UP 1.2 %
>>> Through the 40th week - UP 1.5%
>>> Through the 39th week - UP 2.9%
>>> Through the 38th week - UP 3.6%
>>> Through the 37th week - UP 4.4%
>>> Through the 36th week - UP 5.2%
>>> Through the 35th week - UP 5.6%
>>> Through the 34th week - UP 6.7%
>>>
>>> Do you not see a trend there?
>>>
>>> Well, here are the year-to-date numbers for analog for
>>> the same period.  I'll use Brinkley's (and CEA's) figures
>>> without the combo sets, because those percentages are more
>>> readily available:
>>>
>>> Through the 43rd week - down 13.2%
>>> Through the 42nd week - down 12.5%
>>> Through the 41st week - down 12.3%
>>> Through the 40th week - down 12.3%
>>> Through the 39th week - down 12.7%
>>> Through the 38th week - down 12.6%
>>> Through the 37th week - down 12%
>>> Through the 36th week - down 12.3%
>>> Through the 35th week - down 13.5%
>>> Through the 34th week - down 13.6%
>
>> Bert Mark is probably pulling his hair out on this one. Have
>> you ever taken a math class or statistics? Do you know what
>> a trend is?
>>
>> The analog sales figures show basically a yearly decline to
>> day of 13%, not much of a trend. You would have to look at a
>> number of years to see a trend for those figures. But the
>> digital sales show a "trend" this year. That trend is down
>> week by week. First it is a trend down in the positive but in
>> the last two weeks it has gone negative.
>
> Let me make it simple for everyone.
>
> The first derivative, the actual sales delta from last year to
> this year, shows that digital TV sales are fairly even. Flat, in
> other words. Whereas analog TV sales are in steady and
> relentless decline.
>
> The second derivative, acceleration in sales, shows that the
> rate of change of sales for digital sets has gone from slight
> increase to slight decrease. And you and Mark are assuming that
> this second derivative will continue on this trend.
>
> As of today, however, the simple fact is that analog sales are
> way off compared to last year, whereas digital sales are only
> slightly less. Brinkley said over 23.4 percent less analog sales
> (hint: that means 3 sets sold this year for every 4 sets sold
> last year) and 1.7 percent less in digital sales (hint: that's
> 98 sets sold this year where 100 were sold last year).
>
>> But then a real statistician might detect that the rate of
>> change is not just increasing but that it is accelerating and
>> then all  bets are off. We could be down digitally 50% for
>> Christmas.
>
> Or the real statistician, and Brinkley too, might not go so far.
> Brinkley's point was, if you bother to read his column, that
> the boom in digital sales has not happened. He has not made any
> claim about digital sales going down the tube, or are worse than
> analog sales.
>
> Quoting what Brinkley actually wrote:
>
> "Most interesting to me are these conclusions derived from the
> CEA figures. So far this year, 21 percent of all TV sets sold
> have been digital. But for the most recent week, ending Nov. 4,
> the percentage was just 20 percent.
>
> "This is just one week, and the difference is almost meaningless.
> But that, plus the drop in overall sales, does show that the
> public is not running en masse, in every greater numbers, to buy
> digital televisions. That makes me wonder about the Parks
> Associates claim that 'consumers are beginning to see the true
> benefits of HDTV.' That's easy to say, impossible to prove."
>
> My conclusion is that people are not interested in the boring
> old big analog CRT sets, or fuzzy RPTVs, but at the same time,
> they aren't seeing the prices of the new "digital" sets low
> enough yet to replace their big old analog TVs that cost only
> $200. Case in pooint, the 26" set I bought last year, for over
> $1200, still costs $900 this year. Hardly cheap enough to be seen
> as a replacement for an analog set that would cost less than
> $200 today.
>
> Bert
>
>
>
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